Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander: Both teams to score - No
Celta Vigo's 0.7 xG at home meets Racing Santander's 1.0 xG away, but the model backs a 68.2% chance neither side will find the net. The match‑result odds also tilt toward Racing, with a 41.6% win probability versus Celta's 24.9%.
Both clubs arrive with mixed recent form – Celta have limp‑ed through five games without a win, while Racing have bounced back with two victories in the same span. Injuries to key attackers on both sides add another layer of uncertainty to the upcoming La Liga clash.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 68.2% probability to a BTTS‑No outcome, driven by Celta's modest 0.7 xG at home and Racing's limited 1.0 xG away, alongside their respective defensive frailties.
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With Celta Vigo averaging 0.7 expected goals and Racing Santander averaging 1.0, the model gives a 68.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Celta Vigo 0.7 + Racing Santander 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Celta Vigo at 24.9%, the draw at 33.5%, and Racing Santander at 41.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Celta Vigo
Celta have not won in their last five league games, recording two losses (1‑2 vs Osasuna, 0‑2 vs Athletic Club) and three draws (0‑0 vs Real Sociedad, 1‑1 vs Getafe, 1‑1 vs Malaga). Those results show a team that can hold its own defensively but lacks the firepower to convert chances, reinforcing the BTTS‑No outlook.
Racing Santander
Racing's recent run includes a 2‑2 draw with Villarreal, a 0‑1 loss at Getafe, a 3‑2 win over Elche, a 2‑3 defeat at Rayo Vallecano and a 2‑1 victory against Alaves. The mix of tight draws and narrow wins/losses highlights a side that scores but often in matches where both sides find the net, making the BTTS‑No probability less certain but still supported by their modest away xG.
Head-to-Head
The latest head‑to‑head on 5 January 2025 ended 3‑2 to Celta Vigo, a high‑scoring affair that contrasts with the current low‑scoring model expectations, thus the historical result does not weaken the BTTS‑No pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2025 | Racing Santander 2-3 Celta Vigo | Copa del Rey |
Team News (Pregame)
Celta Vigo: A. Antanon (Ankle Injury), J. El Abdellaoui (Injury), A. Febas (Ribs Injury), B. Iglesias (Injury)
Racing Santander: S. Eriksson (Shoulder Injury), A. Martin (Knee Injury), I. Luque (Inactive), Pedro Felipe (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
Celta Vigo won 5-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
Celta Vigo 5-0 Racing Santander (full time).
When was Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
Celta Vigo played Racing Santander on Sat 19 Sep · 17:30 BST in the La Liga at TBC.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →Given the statistical picture and recent performances, the most logical read is that both teams will fail to score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
