Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC: Over 2.5 goals
Celtic host Ferencvarosi TC in the Europa League with the model giving the Hungarians a slight edge. The numbers point to a goal‑rich encounter.
Both clubs have a recent pedigree of tight affairs, but Ferencvarosi TC arrive after a run of wins and draws, while Celtic’s home scoring record sits at zero goals per game. The clash pits a modest home threat against an away side that has found the net regularly this season.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 54.2% probability for over 2.5 goals, coupled with Ferencvarosi’s 1.5 away xG and recent 4‑0 win, makes a goal‑filled match the most likely outcome.
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With Celtic averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ferencvarosi TC averaging 1.5, the model gives a 57.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (Celtic 1.35 + Ferencvarosi TC 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 54.2% chance against 45.8% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Celtic at 34.2%, the draw at 24.9%, and Ferencvarosi TC at 40.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, Ferencvarosi lost 2‑3 at Celtic, Celtic won 2‑0 at home, and Ferencvarosi won 2‑1 away, indicating a pattern of multiple goals in the fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2021 | Ferencvarosi TC 2-3 Celtic | UEFA Europa League |
| 19 Oct 2021 | Celtic 2-0 Ferencvarosi TC | UEFA Europa League |
| 26 Aug 2020 | Celtic 1-2 Ferencvarosi TC | UEFA Champions League |
Team News
Celtic: A. Johnston (Inactive), Jota (Knee Injury), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card)
Ferencvarosi TC: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Over 2.5 goals. The model’s 54.2% probability for over 2.5 goals, coupled with Ferencvarosi’s 1.5 away xG and recent 4‑0 win, makes a goal‑filled match the most likely outcome.
What does the model give Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Celtic a 34.2% chance, the draw 24.9%, and Ferencvarosi TC 40.9% to win.
When is Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Celtic play Ferencvarosi TC on Thu 17 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Europa League at Celtic Park.
Are there any injury concerns for Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Celtic: A. Johnston (Inactive), Jota (Knee Injury), A. Oxlade-Chamberlain (Red Card). Ferencvarosi TC have no notable injury concerns on record. Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →With both sides averaging around one‑plus goals and the head‑to‑head history favouring open scores, the most logical read is that the game will exceed 2.5 goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
