CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana: CF Pachuca to win
Pachuca's 1.3 expected goals and recent 2‑0, 3‑0 wins give them a clear edge over Tijuana, whose away threat sits at just 1.0 xG.
Both clubs arrive with mixed form, but Pachuca's home record of scoring 1.3 goals per game while conceding two gives them a statistical advantage in this Liga MX clash.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model rates Pachuca's chance of victory at 43.4% versus 28.6% for Tijuana, driven by superior expected goals and recent home form.
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With CF Pachuca averaging 1.3 expected goals and Club Tijuana averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (CF Pachuca 1.3 + Club Tijuana 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Pachuca at 43.4%, the draw at 28.0%, and Club Tijuana at 28.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Pachuca
Pachuca's last five results are L‑D‑D‑W‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 win at Juarez and a 3‑0 thrashing of Atlante, both away fixtures that show a growing attacking edge. The earlier 2‑3 loss to Puebla and two 1‑1 draws demonstrate defensive frailties, but the recent back‑to‑back victories lift their confidence for a home win.
Club Tijuana
Tijuana's DWLWL run includes a 2‑1 home win over Cruz Azul and a 2‑0 home victory against Pumas, showing they can produce goals. However, they also suffered a 2‑5 defeat at Chivas and a 0‑1 loss to Queretaro, indicating inconsistency that undermines their away threat.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Tijuana have won three times, most recently 3‑1 in April 2026, but Pachuca's 4‑1 win in March 2025 shows they can dominate, making the head‑to‑head inconclusive for the pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | Club Tijuana 3-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 17 Aug 2025 | CF Pachuca 0-2 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 17 Mar 2025 | CF Pachuca 4-1 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 5 Oct 2024 | Club Tijuana 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 4 Feb 2024 | CF Pachuca 3-2 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
CF Pachuca and Club Tijuana drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was CF Pachuca to win.
What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
CF Pachuca 2-2 Club Tijuana (full time).
When was CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana?
CF Pachuca played Club Tijuana on Mon 21 Sep · 01:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Hidalgo.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →With a higher expected goal output and a home win probability that outstrips the draw and away odds, Pachuca looks poised to secure three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
