CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas: CF Pachuca to win
Pachuca's 1.5 xG faces Chivas' 1.0 xG, yet the model gives Pachuca a 48.8% win chance versus just 25.2% for the visitors. The numbers point to a home win despite both sides’ recent inconsistency.
Both clubs have been wobbling: Pachuca dropped three of their last five league outings, while Chivas have surged with three wins in five. The contrast in recent results sets up a clash of a side looking to arrest a slide against a visitor on the back of a strong run.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Pachuca a 48.8% chance to win versus Chivas’ 25.2%, reflecting the superior expected goals and the prevalence of low‑scoring home win scorelines.
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With CF Pachuca averaging 1.5 expected goals and Guadalajara Chivas averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (CF Pachuca 1.5 + Guadalajara Chivas 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Pachuca at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Guadalajara Chivas at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Pachuca
Pachuca’s recent five matches read W‑L‑L‑L‑D, highlighted by a 3‑0 away thrashing of U.N.A.M. Pumas and a 2‑3 home loss to Puebla. The win shows they can score, but three consecutive defeats expose defensive frailties, implying they need a clean sheet to secure the win that the model favors.
Guadalajara Chivas
Chivas have posted L‑W‑D‑W‑W, with a 5‑2 home win over Club Tijuana and a 1‑0 away victory at Santos Laguna. The big win demonstrates attacking potency, yet the preceding loss to Toluca and the narrow 1‑0 win over Juarez suggest they may struggle to break through Pachuca’s home defense, supporting a Pachuca win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Chivas have won four, including a 2‑0 win on 2024‑10‑19, while Pachuca managed only a 0‑1 loss on 2025‑11‑03, indicating Chivas dominance but the model still favors Pachuca due to current xG trends.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 3 Nov 2025 | CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 19 Oct 2024 | CF Pachuca 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 13 Apr 2024 | CF Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was CF Pachuca to win.
What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas (full time).
When was CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas?
CF Pachuca played Guadalajara Chivas on Sun 30 Aug · 00:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →With the home side’s attack ticking above the visitors’ defensive average, the model’s win probability leans heavily toward Pachuca, making a home victory the most defensible pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
