CF Pachuca vs Puebla: Both teams to score - No
Pachuca and Puebla head into a tightly balanced clash, with both sides averaging exactly one expected goal. The model sees a razor‑thin edge, rating a draw at 30.9% and each side’s win chance at 34.6%.
Both clubs have struggled to find consistency in recent weeks – Pachuca’s last five league outings read WLWLL while Puebla have managed only one win in the same span. The upcoming encounter pits a side that has scored three goals in three of its last five games against a visitor that has failed to keep a clean sheet in four of its last five.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 60% probability to a clean‑sheet result, reinforced by Pachuca’s home goals‑against average of two per game and Puebla’s away defensive record of one goal conceded per match.
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With CF Pachuca averaging 1.0 expected goals and Puebla averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (CF Pachuca 1.0 + Puebla 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Pachuca at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Puebla at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Pachuca
Pachuca’s recent run includes a 1‑0 home win over U.N.A.M. (Pumas) and a 1‑2 home loss to Club Queretaro, illustrating that they can shut out opponents but also leak goals at home. Their 3‑0 away triumph over U.N.A.M. shows they can dominate when on the road, yet the mixed results underline an inconsistency that supports a low‑scoring outlook for this fixture.
Puebla
Puebla have endured a 1‑2 away defeat to Monterrey and a 1‑2 home loss to Club Queretaro, conceding twice in each of those matches. Their sole win – a 1‑0 away victory at FC Juarez – came without reply, indicating they are capable of winning while keeping a clean sheet, reinforcing the probability that only one side will score here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Pachuca have won four, including a 3‑1 win on 4 July, while Puebla managed only a 2‑2 draw in September 2025, underscoring Pachuca’s dominance and suggesting a single‑team scoring outcome.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | CF Pachuca 3-1 Puebla | Friendlies Clubs |
| 8 Mar 2026 | CF Pachuca 2-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Puebla 2-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 27 Feb 2025 | CF Pachuca 2-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Puebla 2-3 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CF Pachuca vs Puebla?
Puebla won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of CF Pachuca vs Puebla?
CF Pachuca 2-3 Puebla (full time).
When was CF Pachuca vs Puebla?
CF Pachuca played Puebla on Tue 18 Aug · 04:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →Given the parity in expected goals and the modest 40% chance of both sides scoring, the safest read is that only one team will find the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
