Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: Both teams to score - Yes
Chapecoense host Bahia in a tightly contested Brasileirão clash where the model gives Chapecoense a narrow edge. Both sides average just over a goal per game, setting up a potentially low‑scoring encounter.
Both clubs have struggled to find consistency, with Chapecoense winless in four of their last five outings and Bahia unbeaten in four but drawing the vast majority. The fixture pits Chapecoense’s modest home attack against Bahia’s resilient away defence.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates the BTTS probability at 50.8 %, the highest confidence among the available markets, indicating an even split chance that both clubs will hit the net.
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With Chapecoense-sc averaging 1.3 expected goals and Bahia averaging 1.2, the model gives a 50.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Chapecoense-sc 1.3 + Bahia 1.2) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chapecoense-sc at 38.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and Bahia at 34.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense have lost four of their last five league games, with recent defeats 0-2 at Bahia (away), 0-4 to Flamengo (home) and 1-2 at Coritiba (away), plus a 2-2 draw at Santos (away). This run of low‑scoring, mostly losing results shows a thin attacking line that still manages to score, supporting the view that they can get on the scoresheet but also risk conceding.
Bahia
Bahia’s last five results feature a 2-0 home win over Chapecoense and four consecutive draws (1-1 at Atletico-MG, 1-1 versus Corinthians, 0-0 at Fluminense and 0-0 at Vasco). The string of draws, especially the goalless ones, highlights a defensive solidity that could keep a clean sheet, yet the opening win proves they are capable of scoring when needed.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Bahia have won three (2-0 in 2026, 3-0 in 2021 and 0-2 in 2021) and Chapecoense have won two (3-1 in 2022 and 1-0 in 2022), giving Bahia a slight 3-2 edge that still suggests both sides have scored in several encounters.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 1 Oct 2022 | Chapecoense-sc 3-1 Bahia | Serie B |
| 14 Jun 2022 | Bahia 0-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| 24 Oct 2021 | Bahia 3-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 4 Jul 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 0-2 Bahia | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Chapecoense-sc: Y. Bolasie (Injury), Joao Paulo (Health problems), Mauricio Garcez (Thigh Injury), Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury)
Bahia: Erick (Inactive), Erick Pulga (Yellow Cards), Everton Ribeiro (Inactive), Leo Vieira (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Chapecoense-sc and Bahia drew 3-3. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Bahia (full time).
When was Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Chapecoense-sc played Bahia on Sun 16 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the close expected‑goals figures and the defensive disparity, the most decisive signal from the model is the near‑even chance of both sides finding the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
