Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional: Chapecoense to win
Chapecoense’s 1.4 xG meets Internacional’s 1.0 xG, yet the model gives the home side a 46.1% win chance. Both teams have struggled defensively, making a low‑scoring result plausible.
Both clubs enter this clash with uneven recent form – Chapecoense have taken points from three of their last five, while Internacional have failed to win in five straight. The contrast in recent results sets up a test of Chapecoense’s home attacking edge against Internacional’s defensive frailties on the road.
Bez's Verdict
The model rates Chapecoense’s win chance at 46.1%, the highest single outcome probability, driven by their higher expected goals and recent home form.
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With Chapecoense-sc averaging 1.4 expected goals and Internacional averaging 1.0, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Chapecoense-sc 1.4 + Internacional 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chapecoense-sc at 46.1%, the draw at 27.0%, and Internacional at 26.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense’s last five league games read D‑L‑D‑W‑L, highlighted by a 1‑0 home win over Sao Paulo and a 3‑3 home draw with Bahia. The win against Sao Paulo shows they can grind out narrow victories at home, reinforcing the model’s expectation of a low‑scoring home win.
Internacional
Internacional have recorded D‑D‑D‑D‑L, including four consecutive draws (1‑1 vs Flamengo, 0‑0 vs Palmeiras, 1‑1 vs Remo, 0‑0 vs Atletico‑MG) and a 2‑3 away loss to Bahia. Their inability to secure a win and propensity for low‑scoring draws backs the view that they are unlikely to overturn the home side’s edge.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings Internacional have won four times (2‑0 in March 2026, 5‑2 in Oct 2021, 2‑1 in Jun 2021, 1‑0 in Sep 2019) and Chapecoense only once (2‑0 in Apr 2019), a pattern that aligns with the model’s home win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Internacional 2-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 10 Oct 2021 | Internacional 5-2 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 24 Jun 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Internacional | Serie A |
| 22 Sep 2019 | Internacional 1-0 Chapecoense-SC | Serie A |
| 27 Apr 2019 | Chapecoense-SC 2-0 Internacional | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Chapecoense-sc: Y. Bolasie (Injury), Bruno Pacheco (Yellow Cards), Joao Paulo (Health problems), Max Alves (Injury)
Internacional: Allex (Inactive), A. Bernabei (Yellow Cards), Victor Gabriel (Red Card), B. Arhin (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Internacional won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Chapecoense to win.
What was the final score of Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Internacional (full time).
When was Chapecoense-sc vs Internacional?
Chapecoense-sc played Internacional on Sat 12 Sep · 21:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the home side’s marginal scoring edge and Internacional’s inability to find a win recently, the model leans toward a Chapecoense victory, albeit a tight one.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
