Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo: Chapecoense to win
Chapecoense's 1.5 expected goals outweigh Sao Paulo's 0.9, and the model rates a home win at 51.3%, the strongest signal in the data set.
Both sides have stumbled in their last five league outings, each posting a LLDLD pattern, but Chapecoense enjoys a modest edge in scoring efficiency at home while Sao Paulo has struggled to find the net away.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Chapecoense a 51.3% probability of victory, the highest single-event likelihood in the data, driven by superior expected goals at home.
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With Chapecoense-sc averaging 1.5 expected goals and Sao Paulo averaging 0.9, the model gives a 53.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Chapecoense-sc 1.5 + Sao Paulo 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chapecoense-sc at 51.3%, the draw at 26.1%, and Sao Paulo at 22.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense's recent form includes a 2‑2 draw at Santos (A) and a 3‑3 high‑scoring draw against Bahia (H), showing they can find the net even when under pressure. Conversely, they suffered a 0‑4 loss to Flamengo at home and a 0‑2 defeat at Bahia (A), indicating defensive frailties but also that their scoring ability persists, supporting a win probability that hinges on outscoring Sao Paulo.
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo's last five feature a 1‑1 draw at Flamengo (A) and a 1‑1 stalemate with Coritiba (H), both low‑scoring results that highlight their limited away firepower. Their defeats to Remo (0‑1) and Atletico Paranaense (1‑2) further emphasize a lack of goals, reinforcing why the model rates their win chance low at 22.6%.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Sao Paulo beat Chapecoense 2‑0 in March 2026, yet earlier meetings include a 1‑1 draw in 2021, suggesting mixed outcomes but not enough to overturn the current expected‑goals advantage for Chapecoense.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 3 Oct 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 16 Jun 2021 | Sao Paulo 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 3 Nov 2019 | Chapecoense-SC 0-3 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Sao Paulo 4-0 Chapecoense-SC | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Chapecoense-sc: Y. Bolasie (Injury), Bruno Tubarao (Inactive), Joao Paulo (Health problems), Mauricio Garcez (Thigh Injury)
Sao Paulo: Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury), Lucca Marques (Jaw injury), R. Toloi (Muscle Injury), E. Diaz (Personal Reasons)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Chapecoense-sc won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Chapecoense to win.
What was the final score of Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Chapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao Paulo (full time).
When was Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?
Chapecoense-sc played Sao Paulo on Sun 23 Aug · 22:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the clear statistical advantage and the home side's recent scoring bursts, a Chapecoense victory emerges as the most defensible forecast.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
