Chippenham Town vs Havant & Wville: Over 2.5 goals
Chippenham Town host Havant & Wville in the FA Cup with both sides posting identical expected goals of 1.35. The model’s over‑2.5 goals probability edges just above the line, making a high‑scoring affair the most compelling angle.
The tie pits two non‑league sides that have each found the net at a similar rate this season, reflected in their equal 1.35 expected‑goals figures. With no league‑form data available, the decisive factor comes down to what the numbers say about goal volume.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates the probability of more than two goals at 50.6 %, just enough to favour the over‑2.5 goals outcome.
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With Chippenham Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Havant & Wville averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Chippenham Town 1.35 + Havant & Wville 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chippenham Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Havant & Wville at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Chippenham Town have won three times (1‑0, 4‑2, 2‑0) and Havant & Wville have one win (3‑0) with one draw (1‑1). The head‑to‑head record shows a tendency toward multiple goals, supporting the over‑2.5 goals outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2024 | Chippenham Town 1-0 Havant & Wville | National League - South |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Havant & Wville 2-4 Chippenham Town | National League - South |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Havant & Wville 1-1 Chippenham Town | National League - South |
| 15 Nov 2022 | Chippenham Town 0-3 Havant & Wville | National League - South |
| 7 May 2022 | Havant & Wville 0-2 Chippenham Town | National League - South |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Chippenham Town vs Havant & Wville?
Chippenham Town and Havant & Wville drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Chippenham Town vs Havant & Wville?
Chippenham Town 1-1 Havant & Wville (full time).
When was Chippenham Town vs Havant & Wville?
Chippenham Town played Havant & Wville on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the tight expected‑goals parity and the model’s marginal tilt toward a goal‑rich game, backing the over‑2.5 goals market aligns with the statistical outlook.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
