Chippenham Town vs Yate Town: Under 2.5 goals
Chippenham Town host Yate Town in the FA Cup with both sides averaging around a goal per game. The model backs a low‑scoring affair, rating the Under 2.5 goals market as the most skewed.
Both clubs have been involved in tight matches recently, and their head‑to‑head record shows a pattern of narrow scorelines. With Chippenham's home average at exactly one goal for and against, and Yate's away record flat at zero on both fronts, the fixture is primed for a defensive slog.
Robbo's Verdict
The combined expected goals of 2.35 and the model’s 58.3% probability for the under make a sub‑2.5 total the clear favourite.
Show the maths
With Chippenham Town averaging 1.0 expected goals and Yate Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Chippenham Town 1.0 + Yate Town 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Chippenham Town at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Yate Town at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Chippenham Town
Chippenham's recent three‑game stretch includes a 1‑1 draw against Havant & Wville at home, a 3‑1 away win over the same opponents, and a 0‑0 away draw with Yate Town. The mix of a single clean sheet and a modest goal tally signals a side that neither concedes heavily nor scores abundantly, supporting a low‑goal total.
Yate Town
Yate Town entered the tie after a 3‑0 home victory over Devizes Town and a 0‑0 home stalemate with Chippenham Town. The dominant win was at home, while the goalless draw shows they can also be held to nothing, underscoring the limited goal threat on the road.
Head-to-Head
The last four meetings produced two draws (0‑0, 1‑1), a 0‑1 win for Chippenham and a 3‑2 win for Yate, all staying within three goals, which aligns with the under 2.5 expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Yate Town 0-0 Chippenham Town | FA Cup |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Chippenham Town 1-1 Yate Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Yate Town 0-1 Chippenham Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 14 Sep 2013 | Yate Town 3-2 Chippenham Town | FA Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
Chippenham Town won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
Chippenham Town 2-1 Yate Town (full time).
When was Chippenham Town vs Yate Town?
Chippenham Town played Yate Town on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the modest attacking outputs and the historical tendency toward draws and single‑goal results, betting on the total staying below the 2.5‑goal line is the most defensible choice.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
