Cleethorpes Town vs Newcastle Town preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Cleethorpes Town 1-2 Newcastle Town TBC

Cleethorpes Town vs Newcastle Town: Both teams to score – Yes

Cleethorpes Town host Newcastle Town in the FA Cup with identical expected goals of 1.35 each, making the attacking edge razor‑thin. The model favors both sides finding the net at 54.9% probability.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score – Yes Won

Solid · Balanced attack

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Both clubs enter this first‑round tie with no recent league form data on record, leaving the latest statistical signals as the primary guide. Their equal expected‑goal values suggest a balanced contest where neither defence dominates.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score – Yes Won Solid lean Solid · Balanced attack

The model assigns a 54.9% probability to both sides finding the net, outpacing the 45.1% chance of a clean sheet.

Show the maths

Each side's expected goals sit at 1.35, meaning the model predicts roughly one and a third chances per team. When you combine those rates, the probability of at least one goal from each side rises above 50%, landing at 54.9%. This exceeds the alternative clean‑sheet scenario, which sits at 45.1%, making the BTTS outcome the most statistically supported pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Cleethorpes Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Newcastle Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Cleethorpes Town 1.35, Newcastle Town 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Cleethorpes Town 1.35 + Newcastle Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Cleethorpes Town 1.35 + Newcastle Town 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cleethorpes Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Newcastle Town at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Cleethorpes Town expected goals

1.35

Newcastle Town expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the last four meetings, the teams have produced two high‑scoring games (2‑3 in 2020 and 1‑2 in 2019) and two scoreless draws, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring this time.

Date	Result	Competition
20 Feb 2021	Newcastle Town None-None Cleethorpes Town	Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
7 Nov 2020	Cleethorpes Town None-None Newcastle Town	Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
18 Jan 2020	Cleethorpes Town 2-3 Newcastle Town	Non League Div One - Northern Midlands
5 Oct 2019	Newcastle Town 1-2 Cleethorpes Town	Non League Div One - Northern Midlands

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Live scores on all the big sites

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Cleethorpes Town vs Newcastle Town?

Newcastle Town won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.

What was the final score of Cleethorpes Town vs Newcastle Town?

Cleethorpes Town 1-2 Newcastle Town (full time).

When was Cleethorpes Town vs Newcastle Town?

Cleethorpes Town played Newcastle Town on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

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With both teams averaging the same goal threat and past head‑to‑head games delivering multiple goals, the most compelling read is that both will score.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups