Club Queretaro vs Leon: Club Queretaro draw no bet
Club Queretaro's 1.3 expected goals against Leon's 1.0 set a modest scoring outlook. The model gives Queretaro a 71.4% chance to avoid defeat, making a draw‑no‑bet the cleanest edge.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Queretaro have slipped a loss into a string of three wins, while Leon sit on a single defeat amid two wins and a draw. The match pits Queretaro's home scoring edge against Leon's slightly tighter away defence.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model rates Queretaro’s chance to win or draw at 71.4%, making the draw‑no‑bet a high‑probability play.
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With Club Queretaro averaging 1.3 expected goals and Leon averaging 1.0, the model gives a 54.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Club Queretaro 1.3 + Leon 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Club Queretaro at 43.4%, the draw at 28.0%, and Leon at 28.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Club Queretaro
Queretaro’s recent five-game run (W‑D‑L‑W‑W) includes a 3‑2 home win over Tigres UANL and a 1‑0 away win at Club Tijuana, showing they can score and hold onto narrow leads. The lone loss (1‑2 to Toluca) came at home, indicating vulnerability but overall the three wins imply they are more likely than not to pick up points, supporting the draw‑no‑bet.
Leon
Leon’s last five fixtures (W‑W‑D‑L) feature a 2‑1 away win at Necaxa and a 2‑0 home victory over Monterrey, evidencing they can secure both clean sheets and narrow wins. The recent 1‑3 loss to Pumas shows they can be breached, but the two wins suggest they are capable of at least a draw, aligning with the draw‑no‑bet premise.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Queretaro have won 2‑0 and 0‑2, while Leon have claimed 3‑0 and 4‑0 victories, with one 1‑1 draw – the mixed record leans toward a close contest, supporting a draw‑no‑bet on Queretaro.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Club Queretaro 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Leon 3-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Club Queretaro 1-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Leon 4-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 6 Apr 2024 | Leon 0-2 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Club Queretaro vs Leon?
Club Queretaro and Leon drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Club Queretaro draw no bet.
What was the final score of Club Queretaro vs Leon?
Club Queretaro 1-1 Leon (full time).
When was Club Queretaro vs Leon?
Club Queretaro played Leon on Mon 21 Sep · 03:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio La Corregidora.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →With the home side’s win probability at 43.4% and a draw at 28.0%, the combined chance of Queretaro not losing exceeds seven‑in‑ten, steering the pick toward a draw‑no‑bet on the hosts.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
