Club Queretaro vs Toluca: Club Queretaro to win
Club Queretaro's 1.5 expected goals versus Toluca's 1.0 set up a modest scoring outlook, while the model gives Queretaro a 48.8% chance to win – the strongest single‑market edge.
Both sides come into the clash with recent inconsistency: Queretaro have slipped to a loss before a run of two wins and a draw, whereas Toluca sit on a mixed bag of win, loss, win and draw. The fixture pits a home side that scores as often as it concedes against an away team that has kept a perfect clean‑sheet record in its recent away outings.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns Queretaro a 48.8% chance of victory, the highest single outcome probability among the three possible results.
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With Club Queretaro averaging 1.5 expected goals and Toluca averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Club Queretaro 1.5 + Toluca 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Club Queretaro at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Toluca at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Club Queretaro
Queretaro's recent form L‑W‑W‑D includes a 0-1 loss to Club America at home, followed by a 2-1 away win over CF Pachuca and a 3-2 home victory against Tigres UANL. The bounce‑back from the opening defeat to two consecutive wins shows an attacking threat that can break down Toluca's defense, supporting a win pick.
Toluca
Toluca's last five games feature a 2-0 away win at Guadalajara Chivas, a 1-2 home loss to U.N.A.M. Pumas, a 3-1 home win over Necaxa, and a 0-0 away draw with Atlante FC. The away win and clean sheet illustrate they can score and keep out goals, but the recent home loss and draw suggest they lack the consistency to overturn Queretaro's home advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Queretaro beat Toluca 1-0 on 4 April 2026, while Toluca recorded a 4-0 win in October 2025 and a 5-0 thrashing in February 2025. The mixed record, highlighted by a recent Queretaro win, leans toward the home side prevailing this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Club Queretaro 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Toluca 4-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Toluca 5-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Club Queretaro 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Club Queretaro 2-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Toluca won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Club Queretaro to win.
What was the final score of Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Club Queretaro 1-2 Toluca (full time).
When was Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
Club Queretaro played Toluca on Sat 22 Aug · 04:10 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio La Corregidora.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →The statistical edge points to Queretaro edging the contest, especially given their recent home scoring form and Toluca's defensive record that still leaves room for a single goal to decide.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
