Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro: Club Tijuana to win
Club Tijuana enter the clash with a 2.0 expected‑goals mark at home, while Queretaro sit at 1.7 away. The model gives Tijuana a 45.3% chance of victory versus a 33.3% chance for the visitors.
Both sides come in on a mixed run – Tijuana have slipped a loss into a five‑game stretch of WDWLW, whereas Queretaro sit on WWDLW. The recent form shows each club capable of scoring but also vulnerable to conceding, setting up a tight tactical battle.
Jonesy's Verdict
Tijuana’s 2.0 home expected‑goals and 0.5 goals‑against rate give them the clearest advantage over Queretaro’s 1.7 away expected‑goals, aligning with the model’s 45.3% win probability.
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With Club Tijuana averaging 2.0 expected goals and Club Queretaro averaging 1.7, the model gives a 70.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.7 (Club Tijuana 2.0 + Club Queretaro 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 71.4% chance against 28.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Club Tijuana at 45.3%, the draw at 21.4%, and Club Queretaro at 33.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 8.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Club Tijuana
Tijuana’s recent run includes a 1‑0 win over Leon at home and a 2‑1 victory against Cruz Azul also on their turf, showing they can secure narrow wins. Their 2‑0 home triumph over Pumas reinforces that they convert chances into goals, while the 2‑5 away loss to Chivas highlights occasional defensive lapses that are less likely at home, supporting a home win prediction.
Club Queretaro
Queretaro have taken a 2‑1 win at Pachuca and a 3‑2 home success over Tigres, evidencing they can score on the road. A 3‑1 away victory over Atlas adds to their goal‑scoring pedigree, though a 1‑2 home defeat to Toluca reminds us they can be vulnerable, tempering confidence in an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Tijuana have won four and drawn one, including a recent 2‑1 win on 15 Jan 2026, underscoring a clear historical edge that backs the home win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | Club Queretaro 1-2 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Club Tijuana 1-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Club Tijuana 2-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 6 Jul 2024 | Club Queretaro 1-2 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Club Tijuana 1-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro?
Club Queretaro won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Club Tijuana to win.
What was the final score of Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro?
Club Tijuana 0-1 Club Queretaro (full time).
When was Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro?
Club Tijuana played Club Queretaro on Sat 12 Sep · 04:00 BST in the Liga MX at Estadio Caliente.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →Given the superior home defensive record and the slight edge in expected goals, the model’s highest‑probability single market points to a Tijuana win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
