Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc: Under 2.5 goals
Corinthians sit at a 1.0 expected‑goals mark while Chapecoense‑SC manage only 0.7. The model puts the chance of fewer than 2.5 goals at 75.7 %.
Both sides arrive with limited firepower and a string of injuries – Corinthians missing Andre and Kayke, Chapecoense‑SC without Y. Bolasie and Joao Paulo. Their recent league runs have been tight, making a low‑scoring affair the most plausible scenario.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns a 75.7 % probability to the match finishing with fewer than two and a half goals, reflecting the low combined expected‑goals and recent defensive records.
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With Corinthians averaging 1.0 expected goals and Chapecoense-sc averaging 0.7, the model gives a 68.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Corinthians 1.0 + Chapecoense-sc 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Corinthians at 41.6%, the draw at 33.5%, and Chapecoense-sc at 24.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Corinthians
Corinthians' last five league results read D 0‑0 vs Atletico Paranaense, W 2‑0 vs RB Bragantino, then three consecutive defeats (1‑2 vs Cruzeiro, 1‑2 vs Coritiba, 0‑1 vs Santos). They have kept clean sheets twice and scored more than one goal only once, underscoring a propensity for low‑scoring games that backs the under‑2.5 pick.
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense‑SC's recent slate includes a 2‑2 draw at Santos, a 1‑2 loss to Coritiba, a 3‑3 draw with Bahia, a 1‑0 win over Sao Paulo, and a 1‑3 defeat at Gremio. They have scored more than one goal in just two of those five matches, reinforcing the expectation of a modest goal tally.
Head-to-Head
The head‑to‑head record features several tight scorelines – a 0‑0 draw in March 2026 and a series of 1‑0 or 0‑1 results in 2021 and 2019 – confirming a historic trend of few goals between the sides.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
| 2 Nov 2021 | Corinthians 1-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| 2 Oct 2019 | Chapecoense-SC 0-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| 1 May 2019 | Corinthians 1-0 Chapecoense-SC | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Corinthians: Andre (Muscle Injury), Andre Ramalho (Inactive), Breno Bidon (Yellow Cards), Kayke (Knee Injury)
Chapecoense-sc: Y. Bolasie (Injury), Bruno Tubarao (Inactive), Camilo Reijers (Yellow Cards), Joao Paulo (Health problems)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
Chapecoense-sc won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
Corinthians 1-2 Chapecoense-sc (full time).
When was Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc?
Corinthians played Chapecoense-sc on Sun 6 Sep · 23:30 BST in the Brasileirão at Neo Quimica Arena.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the modest xG profile, the defensive discipline shown in their recent matches, and the historical tendency for these fixtures to produce few goals, the under‑2.5 outcome is the logical read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
