Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc: Coritiba to win
Coritiba’s 1.1 expected goals versus Chapecoense’s 0.6 set a clear advantage for the home side, and the model backs a 47.6% win probability. The recent form and head‑to‑head record reinforce that edge.
Both teams come in with contrasting recent runs – Coritiba have managed a win and two losses in their last five, while Chapecoense have failed to win any of their last five league games. With Coritiba’s injury list thin on attacking options but still ahead on the scoring metrics, the fixture leans toward the home side’s favour.
Bez's Verdict
Coritiba’s higher expected goals and a 47.6% win probability make a home win the most likely outcome.
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With Coritiba averaging 1.1 expected goals and Chapecoense-sc averaging 0.6, the model gives a 69.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 30.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Coritiba 1.1 + Chapecoense-sc 0.6) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Coritiba at 47.6%, the draw at 32.5%, and Chapecoense-sc at 20.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 20.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Coritiba
Coritiba’s recent five‑game stretch reads W‑L‑L‑D‑L, highlighted by a 3‑2 home win over Bahia and a 0‑1 loss to Cruzeiro. The win shows they can find the net, while the three defeats underline defensive frailties – a pattern that supports a home win but not a high‑scoring affair.
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense have not won in five, with three straight losses to Palmeiras (0‑1), Bahia (0‑2) and Flamengo (0‑4), followed by a 2‑2 draw at Santos. The string of shutouts underscores their limited attack, reinforcing the expectation of few goals and a low chance of an upset.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Coritiba have won twice (1‑0 on 2024‑07‑27 and 2‑1 on 2025‑04‑12) and drawn twice (0‑0 on 2025‑08‑09 and 3‑3 on 2026‑02‑11), with Chapecoense’s sole win coming 2‑1 in 2024. The head‑to‑head trend leans toward Coritiba, matching the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | Chapecoense-sc 3-3 Coritiba | Serie A |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Coritiba 0-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Coritiba | Serie B |
| 17 Nov 2024 | Chapecoense-sc 2-1 Coritiba | Serie B |
| 27 Jul 2024 | Coritiba 1-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Coritiba: Pedro Rangel (Inactive), Thiago Santos (Inactive), Fabinho (Inactive), Vini Paulista (Yellow Cards)
Chapecoense-sc: Y. Bolasie (Injury), Joao Paulo (Health problems), Mauricio Garcez (Thigh Injury), Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Coritiba won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Coritiba to win.
What was the final score of Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-sc (full time).
When was Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Coritiba played Chapecoense-sc on Sun 9 Aug · 00:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given the statistical edge and the lack of scoring threat from the visitors, the model’s strongest signal points to a Coritiba victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
