Coritiba vs Mirassol: Coritiba Draw No Bet
Coritiba’s 1.3 expected goals against Mirassol’s 0.9 set a modest edge, but the model’s 45.8% win chance lifts the Draw‑No‑Bet appeal. A home advantage and tighter defence further tip the balance.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – Coritiba has been erratic but still manages points, while Mirassol has stumbled in its last five. The matchup pits a side that scores at home (1.3 gpg) against an away outfit that concedes 1.6 per game, shaping a clear tactical contrast.
Bez's Verdict
The model’s win probability of 45.8% versus Mirassol’s 25.8% translates to a 64% chance of a Coritiba win when the draw option is removed.
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With Coritiba averaging 1.3 expected goals and Mirassol averaging 0.9, the model gives a 56.8% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.2% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Coritiba 1.3 + Mirassol 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Coritiba at 45.8%, the draw at 28.4%, and Mirassol at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Coritiba
Coritiba’s recent five results (DLWDW) include a 2‑1 home win over Chapecoense‑SC and a 2‑1 home victory against Corinthians, showing they can score and hold leads. The earlier 0‑1 home loss to Cruzeiro highlights occasional defensive lapses, but the two recent wins reinforce their ability to secure three points, bolstering the Draw‑No‑Bet pick.
Mirassol
Mirassol’s form (WLLDD) features a 2‑1 home win over Remo but is followed by heavy defeats, notably a 1‑5 loss at home to Flamengo and a 1‑3 away loss to Cruzeiro. The two 1‑1 draws against Santos and Palmeiras show they can hold teams, yet the recent downturn suggests limited threat, supporting the home side’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the three recent meetings, Mirassol leads 2‑1 with a 4‑1 win on 2024‑11‑06 and a 1‑0 win on 2024‑07‑20, while Coritiba’s sole victory was 1‑0 on 2026‑03‑18, indicating a head‑to‑head edge for Mirassol that runs counter to the Coritiba Draw‑No‑Bet pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Mirassol 0-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Mirassol 4-1 Coritiba | Serie B |
| 20 Jul 2024 | Coritiba 0-1 Mirassol | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury), B. Ocampo (Injury), Thiago Santos (Yellow Cards), Tinga (Injury)
Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Injury), Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Neto Moura (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Mirassol won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Coritiba Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Coritiba 1-2 Mirassol (full time).
When was Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Coritiba played Mirassol on Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →With the model assigning a 45.8% win probability to Coritiba and only a 25.8% chance to Mirassol, the Draw‑No‑Bet eliminates the draw risk and leaves a solid upside for the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
