Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa: Cracovia Krakow to win
Cracovia's home xG of 1.35 outstrips Raków's 1.0, and the model gives the home side a 44.8% win chance – the strongest edge of the three markets.
Both teams arrive with low‑scoring recent runs, but Cracovia’s defensive record at home (2.0 conceded per game) is matched by Raków’s away woes, making a tight contest likely.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 44.8% win probability, backed by a superior expected‑goals figure, makes a home win the logical choice.
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With Cracovia Krakow averaging 1.35 expected goals and Raków Częstochowa averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Cracovia Krakow 1.35 + Raków Częstochowa 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cracovia Krakow at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Raków Częstochowa at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia’s last five league results read D‑D‑D‑L‑D, including a 3‑3 draw away at Motor Lublin and a 1‑1 draw at home against Korona Kielce. The three consecutive draws show they can find the net but struggle to close games, which aligns with a modest win probability rather than a high‑scoring outcome.
Raków Częstochowa
Raków have lost both of their recent league fixtures, 1‑2 at home to Wisla Plock and 1‑2 away to Slask Wroclaw. The back‑to‑back defeats underline their difficulty in scoring away, supporting the view that they are unlikely to overturn the home side’s edge.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Cracovia have a 2‑2‑1 record, highlighted by a 2‑0 home win in October 2025, suggesting they can hold Raków to few goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Cracovia Krakow | Cup |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| 29 Jul 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 0-1 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Cracovia Krakow to win.
What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Raków Częstochowa (full time).
When was Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow played Raków Częstochowa on Sun 16 Aug · 16:30 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →The combination of a higher xG rating and a better recent direct result points to a home victory as the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
