Cray Wanderers vs Lewes: Cray Wanderers to win
Cray Wanderers host Lewes in the FA Cup with both sides posting identical expected‑goals of 1.35, suggesting a tight contest where the home side’s marginal edge may decide the outcome.
Both clubs enter the tie on a single draw in their last five league outings, and the fixture repeats a recent 2‑2 stalemate that ended just weeks ago, underscoring how evenly matched they are.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Cray Wanderers a 37.1% win probability versus Lewes’ identical figure, but the home advantage in a knockout setting tips the balance toward a narrow victory.
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With Cray Wanderers averaging 1.35 expected goals and Lewes averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Cray Wanderers 1.35 + Lewes 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cray Wanderers at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Lewes at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cray Wanderers
Cray Wanderers’ last five league results include a 2‑2 draw against Lewes away and a series of draws (D) overall, indicating they are not scoring heavily but are hard to beat. The 2‑2 stalemate shows they can find the net against Lewes, which supports a narrow home win in this cup tie.
Lewes
Lewes’ recent league form mirrors Cray Wanderers with a string of draws and a 2‑2 home draw versus the same opposition, highlighting their inability to convert chances into a win. Their lack of recent victories suggests they may struggle to overturn the home side’s slight advantage.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 2‑2, while earlier fixtures have produced both a 3‑0 win for Cray Wanderers and a 4‑3 win for Lewes, indicating a pattern of close scorelines that favour a narrow home victory.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026 | Lewes 2-2 Cray Wanderers | FA Cup |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Cray Wanderers 3-0 Lewes | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Lewes 2-2 Cray Wanderers | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Lewes 4-3 Cray Wanderers | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Cray Wanderers 1-3 Lewes | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cray Wanderers vs Lewes?
Cray Wanderers won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Cray Wanderers to win.
What was the final score of Cray Wanderers vs Lewes?
Cray Wanderers 1-0 Lewes (full time).
When was Cray Wanderers vs Lewes?
Cray Wanderers played Lewes on Tue 8 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the home factor and the prevalence of low‑scoring outcomes in the predictions, the safest bet is for the hosts to edge it by a single goal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
