Crowborough Athletic vs Hampton & Richmond: Hampton & Richmond to win
Crowborough Athletic's 1.0 xG meets Hampton & Richmond's 1.35 xG, hinting at a modest edge for the visitors. The model backs Hampton & Richmond with a 44.8% chance of victory – the strongest single‑outcome probability on offer.
Both clubs entered the FA Cup tie after a string of stalemates, with Crowborough drawing 1‑1 at home to Whyteleafe and then edging a 3‑2 win away, while Hampton & Richmond have only a 3‑3 draw against Crowborough on their recent record. The lack of clear momentum makes the expected‑goals differential the clearest indicator of who will edge the match.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Hampton & Richmond a 44.8% chance of victory, the highest single‑outcome probability among the available markets.
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With Crowborough Athletic averaging 1.0 expected goals and Hampton & Richmond averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Crowborough Athletic 1.0 + Hampton & Richmond 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Crowborough Athletic at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Hampton & Richmond at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Crowborough Athletic
Crowborough's recent form shows a 1‑1 draw at home against Whyteleafe and a 3‑2 away win over the same side, followed by a 3‑3 draw away at Hampton & Richmond. The mixed results, especially the narrow win, indicate they can score but also concede, limiting their upside for a clean victory here.
Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond's only listed recent result is a 3‑3 home draw with Crowborough, a high‑scoring encounter that underscores their ability to find the net even when away. The lack of a win in that game suggests they may lean on their superior xG rather than recent points to secure the result.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head ended 3‑3, a draw that featured goals from both sides, reinforcing the model's BTTS probability of 46.8% while still favouring Hampton & Richmond for the win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hampton & Richmond 3-3 Crowborough Athletic | FA Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Crowborough Athletic vs Hampton & Richmond?
Crowborough Athletic won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Hampton & Richmond to win.
What was the final score of Crowborough Athletic vs Hampton & Richmond?
Crowborough Athletic 3-1 Hampton & Richmond (full time).
When was Crowborough Athletic vs Hampton & Richmond?
Crowborough Athletic played Hampton & Richmond on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the marginal xG advantage and the higher win probability from the model, the visitors are the logical choice for the result pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
