Crowborough Athletic vs Wimborne Town: Crowborough Athletic Draw No Bet
Crowborough Athletic and Wimborne Town both sit on a 2.0 expected‑goals mark in this FA Cup clash, but the model favours a result without a loss for the hosts. The over/under and BTTS markets are heavily weighted toward goals, leaving a draw‑no‑bet edge for Crowborough.
Both sides arrive in the third round of the FA Cup after mixed league runs – Crowborough with a D‑W‑D‑W sequence and Wimborne with a D‑W‑D‑D pattern – and identical expected‑goals of 2.0. With each team averaging one goal conceded per game, the tie promises open play but a clear statistical advantage for the home side when the draw is removed.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s win‑plus‑draw probability for Crowborough sits at 60.3 % versus a 39.6 % chance of a loss, providing a solid edge for a draw‑no‑bet on the hosts.
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With Crowborough Athletic averaging 2.0 expected goals and Wimborne Town averaging 2.0, the model gives a 74.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Crowborough Athletic 2.0 + Wimborne Town 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 76.1% chance against 23.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Crowborough Athletic at 39.6%, the draw at 20.7%, and Wimborne Town at 39.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 7.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Crowborough Athletic
Crowborough’s recent league form shows a draw 1‑1 at home against Whyteleafe and a strong 3‑1 home win over Hampton & Richmond. Those results demonstrate both defensive solidity and a knack for scoring at home, reinforcing the view that the hosts are unlikely to lose when the draw is excluded.
Wimborne Town
Wimborne’s last five league outings include a 0‑0 home draw with Portishead Town and a 1‑1 home draw with Weston‑super‑Mare, alongside a 3‑1 away win over Portishead Town. The mix of draws and a single win suggests they are prone to sharing points, which supports the draw‑no‑bet advantage for Crowborough.
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Crowborough Athletic vs Wimborne Town?
Crowborough Athletic Draw No Bet. The model’s win‑plus‑draw probability for Crowborough sits at 60.3 % versus a 39.6 % chance of a loss, providing a solid edge for a draw‑no‑bet on the hosts.
What does the model give Crowborough Athletic vs Wimborne Town?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Crowborough Athletic a 39.6% chance, the draw 20.7%, and Wimborne Town 39.6% to win.
When is Crowborough Athletic vs Wimborne Town?
Crowborough Athletic play Wimborne Town on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the balanced win odds but a sizable draw component, removing the draw tilts the odds in Crowborough’s favour, making a draw‑no‑bet the most compelling single‑market read here.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
