Cruzeiro vs Mirassol: Cruzeiro to win
Cruzeiro’s 1.5 expected goals versus Mirassol’s 0.9 set a clear scoring advantage, while the model rates a 51.3% win chance for the home side versus the market’s 18.8% implied for the visitors.
Both teams arrive with recent mixed form, but Cruzeiro’s home record and Mirassol’s away struggles shape the encounter in Brazil’s top flight.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns a 51.3% win probability to Cruzeiro, far above the market’s implied 18.8% for Mirassol, indicating strong value on the home team.
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With Cruzeiro averaging 1.5 expected goals and Mirassol averaging 0.9, the model gives a 53.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Cruzeiro 1.5 + Mirassol 0.9) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Cruzeiro at 51.3%, the draw at 26.1%, and Mirassol at 22.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro’s recent five-game stretch reads WDWLW, highlighted by a 2‑1 victory over Chapecoense at home and a 1‑0 win away at Coritiba. The win against Internacional (2‑1) on the road shows they can score on the move, reinforcing the model’s 1.5 xG home expectation and supporting a home win pick.
Mirassol
Mirassol’s WLWDW run includes a 1‑0 home win over Fluminense and a 2‑1 home triumph against Gremio, but on the road they suffered a 0‑1 loss at Atletico Paranaense and only managed a 1‑1 draw at Vasco da Gama. The limited away scoring (0.9 xG) and conceding 1.6 goals per game underline their vulnerability, backing the pick for a Cruzeiro victory.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meetings are tight – a 2‑2 draw in February 2026 and a 1‑1 draw in August 2025 – but the most recent clash in March 2025 saw Cruzeiro win 2‑1, suggesting a slight edge for the home side.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | Mirassol 2-2 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Mirassol 1-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Cruzeiro 2-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury), Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg), Matheus Henrique (Yellow Cards), N. Villarreal (Muscle Injury)
Mirassol: Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury), Negueba (Knee Injury), Walter (Inactive), Alesson (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Cruzeiro won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Cruzeiro to win.
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol (full time).
When was Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Cruzeiro played Mirassol on Sun 9 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Combined with a market price that undervalues the home side, the data points to a straightforward win for Cruzeiro.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
