CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Russian Premier League · Regular Season - 5 FT · CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv VEB Arena

CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv: Both teams to score - Yes

CSKA Moscow host Lokomotiv in a tightly balanced Russian Premier League clash. Both sides sit on identical 1.0 expected goals, but the model sees a clear edge for both teams to find the net.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Won

Solid · Defensive contrast

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — No Lost

60.0% model probability

Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost

67.7% model probability

CSKA have turned a modest home record into a 2‑0 unbeaten run, highlighted by a 2‑1 win over Baltika and a 1‑0 victory at Fakel. Lokomotiv, meanwhile, have struggled away, drawing three of their last four fixtures but conceding heavily in a 1‑2 loss at Dinamo Makhachkala.

Lars's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Won Slight lean Solid · Defensive contrast

With CSKA’s solid home defence paired with Lokomotiv’s porous away record and a history of open games, both sides are likely to hit the net.

Show the maths

The model’s expected goals for each team sit at 1.0, implying a combined 2.0 xG baseline. CSKA’s home goals‑against average of 0.5 versus Lokomotiv’s away goals‑against of 1.5 suggests that each side will create at least one clear chance. Translating that into probability, the model allocates a 40 % chance to both teams scoring, which is the strongest signal among the available markets.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — No (one side kept off the scoresheet) Lost 60.0% model probability

With CSKA Moscow averaging 1.0 expected goals and Lokomotiv averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (CSKA Moscow 1.0, Lokomotiv 1.0) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 40.0% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 60.0% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals Lost 67.7% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.0 (CSKA Moscow 1.0 + Lokomotiv 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (CSKA Moscow 1.0 + Lokomotiv 1.0 = 2.0 combined): 32.3% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 67.7% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CSKA Moscow at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Lokomotiv at 34.6% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

CSKA Moscow expected goals

1.0

Lokomotiv expected goals

1.0

Model BTTS probability

60.0%

Most likely scorelines

10-0

13.5%

20-1

13.5%

31-0

13.5%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

CSKA Moscow

WDDW

CSKA’s recent form shows a win‑draw‑draw‑win pattern, with a 2‑1 home win over Baltika and a 1‑0 triumph at Fakel demonstrating their ability to find the net while keeping a clean sheet. Those results reinforce their capacity to score against Lokomotiv, supporting a BTTS outcome.

Lokomotiv

DLDD

Lokomotiv have posted a draw‑loss‑draw‑draw sequence, notably a 1‑2 away loss to Dinamo Makhachkala and a 1‑1 home draw with Akhmat. Even in defeat they managed a goal, indicating they can still find the net on the road, which backs the BTTS pick.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, three matches featured both sides scoring – notably a 3‑1 CSKA win and a 3‑2 CSKA win – confirming a trend toward open games that aligns with the BTTS prediction.

Date	Result	Competition
4 Aug 2026	Lokomotiv 1-1 CSKA Moscow	Cup
14 Jul 2026	Lokomotiv 1-0 CSKA Moscow	Friendlies Clubs
17 May 2026	CSKA Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv	Premier League
21 Feb 2026	CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv	Friendlies Clubs
18 Oct 2025	Lokomotiv 3-0 CSKA Moscow	Premier League

Team News (Pregame)

CSKA Moscow: I. Akinfeev (Muscle Injury), M. Voronov (Knee Injury)

Lokomotiv: A. Karpukas (Inactive), N. Komlichenko (Knee Injury), C. Montes (Inactive), A. Mitryushkin (Injury)

Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

CSKA's recent goalless grind

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?

CSKA Moscow won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?

CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv (full time).

When was CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?

CSKA Moscow played Lokomotiv on Sat 22 Aug · 18:15 BST in the Russian Premier League at VEB Arena.

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Given the equal expected goals and the defensive disparity, the model assigns a 40 % probability to both teams scoring, the highest confidence we have across the markets.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga