CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Over 2.5 goals
CSKA Sofia's 2.0 expected goals meet Maccabi Tel Aviv's 5.0 expected goals in a Europa League tie where the model assigns a 90.2% chance of more than 2.5 goals. The match‑result odds heavily favor Maccabi at 76.3%, underscoring a likely fireworks display.
Both sides arrive on a recent run of scoring form: CSKA have netted three times in three of their last five league outings, while Maccabi have scored five in a single away fixture and kept a clean sheet in that match. The contrast in defensive records – CSKA concede just one per game at home, Maccabi none away – sets up a classic attack‑vs‑defence clash.
Robbo's Verdict
The combined expected‑goals of 7.0 and a 90.2% model probability make a goal‑rich game the most likely outcome.
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With CSKA Sofia averaging 2.0 expected goals and Maccabi Tel Aviv averaging 5.0, the model gives a 80.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 20.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 7.0 (CSKA Sofia 2.0 + Maccabi Tel Aviv 5.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 90.2% chance against 9.8% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CSKA Sofia at 8.6%, the draw at 8.2%, and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 76.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-4 at 4.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia have won 3‑2 at home against Derry City and 2‑1 away at Derry City, showing they can find the net against varied opposition. Their recent 3‑0 away victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv further proves their ability to score in bulk, which supports a high‑scoring total in this tie.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv blasted Sheriff Tiraspol 5‑0 away and followed with a 1‑0 home win, demonstrating both a lethal attack and defensive solidity. Even after a 0‑3 home loss to CSKA Sofia, their five‑goal away performance highlights a capacity to flood the game with goals, reinforcing the over‑2.5 expectation.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 6 August saw CSKA Sofia win 3‑0 at home, a result that underlines the potential for multiple goals when these sides meet.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 CSKA Sofia | UEFA Europa League |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Over 2.5 goals. The combined expected‑goals of 7.0 and a 90.2% model probability make a goal‑rich game the most likely outcome.
What does the model give CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives CSKA Sofia a 8.6% chance, the draw 8.2%, and Maccabi Tel Aviv 76.3% to win.
When is CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
CSKA Sofia play Maccabi Tel Aviv on Thu 13 Aug · 19:00 BST in the Europa League at National Stadium Vasil Levski.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →With the statistical odds stacked toward a high‑scoring encounter, the most logical market is the total goals line.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
