CSKA Sofia vs OFI: Under 2.5 goals
CSKA Sofia's 1.7 xG meets OFI's 1.35 xG in a Europa League clash where the model rates the total under 2.5 goals at 41.2%. Both sides have shown a tendency to keep scores low, especially CSKA with two goalless draws recently.
The Sofia side enters the tie after a mixed five‑match run – two draws, a win and two defeats – while OFI arrive on the back of a single 3‑0 victory over CSKA in the previous encounter. With both teams' recent results featuring tight scorelines, the fixture promises a tactical battle rather than a goal‑fest.
Robbo's Verdict
The combined defensive solidity and modest xG suggest fewer than three goals is the likeliest scenario.
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With CSKA Sofia averaging 1.7 expected goals and OFI averaging 1.35, the model gives a 60.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (CSKA Sofia 1.7 + OFI 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 58.8% chance against 41.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CSKA Sofia at 45.8%, the draw at 23.7%, and OFI at 30.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia’s last five league results read DDWLL, highlighted by a 0-0 draw away at Qarabag and a 0-0 draw at home against the same side, showing a recent inability to break down defenses. Their 3-0 away win over Maccabi Tel Aviv demonstrates occasional firepower, but the subsequent 1-3 home loss to the same team and a 0-3 defeat away at OFI underline defensive frailties that keep the total goal tally low, supporting an under‑2.5 goal outlook.
OFI
OFI’s recent form is limited to a single 3-0 home win over CSKA Sofia, a result that came in a previous Europa League tie. While that match produced three goals, the team’s away goals‑for and goals‑against averages are both zero, indicating that their road performances tend to be shut‑out affairs, which aligns with a low‑scoring expectation for this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head saw OFI thrash CSKA Sofia 3-0 on 20 August 2026, a result that contradicts the low‑scoring trend but remains an outlier given the broader defensive metrics.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia | UEFA Europa League |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won CSKA Sofia vs OFI?
OFI won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of CSKA Sofia vs OFI?
CSKA Sofia 0-2 OFI (full time).
When was CSKA Sofia vs OFI?
CSKA Sofia played OFI on Thu 27 Aug · 19:00 BST in the Europa League at National Stadium Vasil Levski.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →Given the low away scoring record and CSKA’s recent goalless draws, the most probable outcome is a match under 2.5 goals, aligning with the model’s probability weighting.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
