Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue) preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Curzon Ashton 1-2 Bradford (Park Avenue) TBC

Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue): Both teams to score – Yes

Curzon Ashton host Bradford (Park Avenue) in the FA Cup with both sides boasting identical expected goals of 1.35, making the attack the decisive factor.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score – Yes Won

Solid · BTTS Edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The tie pits two non-league sides whose season‑long scoring rates are perfectly aligned, so the match will likely be decided by who can break down the other's defence on the day.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score – Yes Won Solid lean Solid · BTTS Edge

The model rates the chance of both sides finding the net at 54.9%, higher than the 45.1% chance of a clean sheet, making the BTTS – Yes bet the logical choice.

Show the maths

Both clubs have an expected goal value of 1.35, meaning each is likely to create at least one clear chance. The model translates that parity into a 54.9% probability for both to score, while the draw and win odds remain evenly split. Because the BTTS probability exceeds the simple 50% threshold, the model flags it as the strongest single‑market edge.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Curzon Ashton averaging 1.35 expected goals and Bradford (Park Avenue) averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Curzon Ashton 1.35, Bradford (Park Avenue) 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Curzon Ashton 1.35 + Bradford (Park Avenue) 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Curzon Ashton 1.35 + Bradford (Park Avenue) 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Curzon Ashton at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Bradford (Park Avenue) at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Curzon Ashton expected goals

1.35

Bradford (Park Avenue) expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the last four meetings, three have produced goals – a 2-1 win for Bradford in 2022, a 3-2 win for Curzon Ashton in 2022, and a 2-1 win for Curzon Ashton in 2021 – reinforcing the BTTS outlook.

Date	Result	Competition
1 Apr 2023	Curzon Ashton 0-0 Bradford (Park Avenue)	National League - North
8 Oct 2022	Bradford (Park Avenue) 2-1 Curzon Ashton	National League - North
12 Mar 2022	Bradford (Park Avenue) 2-3 Curzon Ashton	National League - North
25 Sep 2021	Curzon Ashton 2-1 Bradford (Park Avenue)	National League - North
1 May 2021	Bradford (Park Avenue) None-None Curzon Ashton	National League - North

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Live score page already up

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue)?

Bradford (Park Avenue) won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.

What was the final score of Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue)?

Curzon Ashton 1-2 Bradford (Park Avenue) (full time).

When was Curzon Ashton vs Bradford (Park Avenue)?

Curzon Ashton played Bradford (Park Avenue) on Sat 5 Sep · 13:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

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Given the balanced xG and the history of goal‑filled encounters, the most reliable signal is that both sides will score.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups