Dagenham & Redbridge vs Waltham Abbey: Waltham Abbey to win
Waltham Abbey arrive as overwhelming favourites with a 70% win probability and a 7.0 xG threat, while Dagenham & Redbridge sit on a barren 1.35 xG.
The FA Cup tie pits a low‑scoring Dagenham & Redbridge side against a side that has been netting seven goals per game on the road this season. With the odds stacked against the hosts, the match is likely to be a one‑sided affair.
Robbo's Verdict
With a 70% model probability and a seven‑goal expected output, Waltham Abbey are far more likely to secure the three points.
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With Dagenham & Redbridge averaging 1.35 expected goals and Waltham Abbey averaging 7.0, the model gives a 53.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 8.3 (Dagenham & Redbridge 1.35 + Waltham Abbey 7.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 71.9% chance against 28.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dagenham & Redbridge at 1.1%, the draw at 1.8%, and Waltham Abbey at 70.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-6 at 5.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham & Redbridge’s recent form is a solitary draw – a 1‑1 stalemate against Waltham Abbey away – indicating they have struggled to find the net. That lack of scoring power underpins their tiny win probability in this fixture.
Waltham Abbey
Waltham Abbey have been emphatic, beating Brantham Athletic 7‑0 away and then drawing 1‑1 at home against Dagenham & Redbridge. The seven‑goal outburst highlights an attacking threat that the model has translated into a 70% win chance.
Head-to-Head
The most recent meeting ended 1‑1, but the historic 7‑0 victory over Brantham Athletic and the 7.0 away xG underline Waltham Abbey’s superior firepower, supporting the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Waltham Abbey 1-1 Dagenham & Redbridge | FA Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Dagenham & Redbridge vs Waltham Abbey?
Dagenham & Redbridge won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Waltham Abbey to win.
What was the final score of Dagenham & Redbridge vs Waltham Abbey?
Dagenham & Redbridge 3-0 Waltham Abbey (full time).
When was Dagenham & Redbridge vs Waltham Abbey?
Dagenham & Redbridge played Waltham Abbey on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →All the numbers point to a dominant performance from the visitors, making a straight win the most sensible selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
