Dartford vs Hayes & Yeading United: Over 2.5 goals
Dartford’s 2.0 xG versus Hayes & Yeading’s 1.35 xG set a clear scoring edge, and the model rates the over‑2.5‑goals market at 65 % probability.
In the FA Cup first round, Dartford host Hayes & Yeading United at the Princes Park ground. Both clubs have shown attacking intent in recent league outings, making this tie a potential goal‑fest.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 65 % probability to more than two goals, driven by the combined xG of 3.35 and recent scoring form of both sides.
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With Dartford averaging 2.0 expected goals and Hayes & Yeading United averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Dartford 2.0 + Hayes & Yeading United 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dartford at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Hayes & Yeading United at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dartford
Dartford’s recent league form includes a 1‑1 draw away at Westfield and a 2‑0 home win over the same side, showing they can both hold opponents and score twice. This recent scoring output supports a higher goal total for the FA Cup match.
Hayes & Yeading United
Hayes & Yeading United opened their recent run with a 2‑1 home win over Camberley Town, demonstrating they have the ability to find the net against comparable opposition. That goal‑scoring form adds weight to the expectation of multiple goals in the tie.
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dartford vs Hayes & Yeading United?
Over 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 65 % probability to more than two goals, driven by the combined xG of 3.35 and recent scoring form of both sides.
What does the model give Dartford vs Hayes & Yeading United?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dartford a 52.5% chance, the draw 21.7%, and Hayes & Yeading United 25.8% to win.
When is Dartford vs Hayes & Yeading United?
Dartford play Hayes & Yeading United on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →The combination of superior xG and a record of scoring in the last two league matches points to a game with multiple goals on the cards.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
