Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis: Deportivo La Coruna to win
Deportivo La Coruna sit on a 2.0 xG baseline against Betis' 1.5, and the model backs a home win at 49.3% probability. With a 67.9% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match promises plenty of action.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent runs – Deportivo have turned two draws into wins in their last five, while Betis sit on a three‑win, one‑loss record that includes a heavy 2‑5 defeat. The clash pits Deportivo’s solid home defence against Betis’ volatile away form.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Deportivo a 49.3% chance to win versus Betis’ 29.0%, driven by superior home xG and a tighter defensive record.
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With Deportivo La Coruna averaging 2.0 expected goals and Real Betis averaging 1.5, the model gives a 67.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Deportivo La Coruna 2.0 + Real Betis 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Deportivo La Coruna at 49.3%, the draw at 21.6%, and Real Betis at 29.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo’s last five league results read D‑D‑W‑W‑D, highlighted by a 3‑1 home victory over Valencia and a 3‑2 away win at Villarreal. Those two wins show they can breach defenses, and the recent draws against Getafe and Elche underline a resilient defence – a blend that backs a home win in this fixture.
Real Betis
Betis have posted a WWLW run, with three narrow 1‑0 wins over Real Sociedad, Valencia and Real Madrid, but suffered a 2‑5 loss at Levante. The three clean‑sheet wins demonstrate defensive solidity, yet the heavy defeat reveals vulnerability that Deportivo can exploit at home.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Betis have won twice and drawn three, with the latest 0‑1 win for Betis in 2018. The trend of Betis edging the encounters supports a close contest but does not outweigh Deportivo’s current home form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2018 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Real Betis | La Liga |
| 16 Sep 2017 | Real Betis 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 8 Mar 2017 | Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis | La Liga |
| 26 Aug 2016 | Real Betis 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 13 Feb 2016 | Deportivo La Coruna 2-2 Real Betis | La Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Deportivo La Coruna: N. Carrillo (Ankle Injury), A. Altimira (Red Card), A. Traore (Muscle Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury)
Real Betis: D. Llorente (Broken nose), J. Morante (Coach's decision), A. Ruibal (Knee Injury), A. Ezzalzouli (Illness)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
Deportivo La Coruna and Real Betis drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Deportivo La Coruna to win.
What was the final score of Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Real Betis (full time).
When was Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
Deportivo La Coruna played Real Betis on Sun 20 Sep · 17:30 BST in the La Liga at Estadio de Riazor.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →All signs point to a match where the home side’s attacking edge and tighter defence should tip the balance, making a Deportivo win the most credible outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
