Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla: Both teams to score - Yes
Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla both post an expected 2.0 goals per game, pointing to a high‑scoring encounter. The model assigns a 74.7% chance that both sides will find the net.
Both clubs enter this La Liga clash with potent attacks and solid defensive records – each concedes just one goal per game on average. Their recent form shows Deportivo turning two draws into consecutive wins, while Sevilla has slipped a loss into an otherwise strong run.
Robbo's Verdict
Given the identical 2.0 expected goals and the model’s 74.7% BTTS probability, both sides are likely to score.
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With Deportivo La Coruna averaging 2.0 expected goals and Sevilla averaging 2.0, the model gives a 74.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Deportivo La Coruna 2.0 + Sevilla 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 76.1% chance against 23.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Deportivo La Coruna at 39.6%, the draw at 20.7%, and Sevilla at 39.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 7.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo’s recent form includes a 1‑1 draw against Elche at home and a 3‑1 home victory over Valencia, showing they can both hold and break the dead‑lock. The 3‑2 win at Villarreal further proves their ability to score multiple goals away, reinforcing the expectation that they will hit the net against Sevilla.
Sevilla
Sevilla’s recent results feature a 2‑1 home win over Rayo Vallecano and a 3‑1 away triumph at Athletic, highlighting their capacity to score in both venues. Even their 1‑1 draw at Espanyol demonstrates they can still find the net when under pressure, supporting the view that they will score against Deportivo.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, three matches featured both sides scoring – 4‑2 (2017), 2‑3 (2016) and 1‑1 (2016) – underscoring a tendency for both teams to hit the net, which aligns with the BTTS‑Yes pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2018 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2 Dec 2017 | Sevilla 2-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 8 Apr 2017 | Sevilla 4-2 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 19 Nov 2016 | Deportivo La Coruna 2-3 Sevilla | La Liga |
| 17 Apr 2016 | Sevilla 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
Team News
Deportivo La Coruna: N. Carrillo (Injury), A. Altimira (Red Card), A. Traore (Muscle Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury)
Sevilla: A. Sangante (Red Card), R. Vargas (Knee Injury), Marcao (Foot Injury), A. Gonzalez (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Both teams to score - Yes. Given the identical 2.0 expected goals and the model’s 74.7% BTTS probability, both sides are likely to score.
What does the model give Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Deportivo La Coruna a 39.6% chance, the draw 20.7%, and Sevilla 39.6% to win.
When is Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Deportivo La Coruna play Sevilla on Wed 16 Sep · 18:00 BST in the La Liga at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.
Are there any injury concerns for Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla?
Deportivo La Coruna: N. Carrillo (Injury), A. Altimira (Red Card), A. Traore (Muscle Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury). Sevilla: A. Sangante (Red Card), R. Vargas (Knee Injury), Marcao (Foot Injury), A. Gonzalez (Muscle Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →With each team averaging two goals per game, a clean sheet looks unlikely, making the both‑teams‑to‑score market the most compelling read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
