Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia: Valencia to win
Valencia enter the game with a 1.35 expected‑goals edge over Deportivo’s 1.0, and the model backs them at 44.8% to take all three points. Deportivo sit at 27.7% with a draw almost as likely, signalling a clear favorite in Valencia.
Both sides come in on contrasting recent runs – Deportivo have been unable to turn a single draw into a win, while Valencia have collected two wins and a draw from their last three league outings. The La Liga clash pits a side desperate for a breakthrough against a visitor that has shown it can score at the other end.
Robbo's Verdict
Valencia’s 1.35 expected goals versus Deportivo’s 1.0, plus two wins in their last three fixtures, give them the statistical edge to secure the win.
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With Deportivo La Coruna averaging 1.0 expected goals and Valencia averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Deportivo La Coruna 1.0 + Valencia 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Deportivo La Coruna at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Valencia at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo’s recent league form is a single 1‑1 home draw against Elche, showing they have failed to secure a win in five matches. That lack of finishing power aligns with their low 1.0 expected‑goals figure and supports the view that they are unlikely to outscore Valencia.
Valencia
Valencia have collected two wins – a 4‑3 away triumph over Real Sociedad and a 3‑1 home win over Barcelona – before drawing 0‑0 with Celta Vigo. Those results demonstrate a potent attack that matches the 1.35 expected‑goals rating and underpins confidence in a Valencia win.
Head-to-Head
The last three meetings have all gone to Valencia, most recently a 2‑1 win on 20 May 2018, reinforcing the trend that the visitors usually have the upper hand.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2018 | Valencia 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 13 Jan 2018 | Deportivo La Coruna 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| 2 Apr 2017 | Valencia 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 31 Oct 2016 | Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| 24 Jan 2016 | Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Valencia | La Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Deportivo La Coruna: N. Carrillo (Injury), D. Mella (Injury), D. Villares (Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury)
Valencia: S. Canos (Knee Injury), J. Copete (Ankle Injury), D. Lopez (Knee Injury), D. Foulquier (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia?
Deportivo La Coruna won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Valencia to win.
What was the final score of Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia?
Deportivo La Coruna 3-1 Valencia (full time).
When was Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia?
Deportivo La Coruna played Valencia on Sun 30 Aug · 18:30 BST in the La Liga at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →The combination of higher expected goals, recent scoring form and a dominant head‑to‑head makes the visitors the logical choice for three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
