Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow: Over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Makhachkala host CSKA Moscow in a fixture where the model predicts 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, driven by a combined xG of 3.3.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs: Dinamo have flirted with inconsistency, while CSKA have collected three wins in their last five. The clash pits Dinamo's solid defensive record at home against CSKA's potent away attack.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 64% chance to more than two goals, underpinned by the teams' combined expected goals of 3.3 and recent high‑scoring performances.
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With Dinamo Makhachkala averaging 1.3 expected goals and CSKA Moscow averaging 2.0, the model gives a 62.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 37.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Dinamo Makhachkala 1.3 + CSKA Moscow 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dinamo Makhachkala at 24.7%, the draw at 21.6%, and CSKA Moscow at 53.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo's last five league results read LWLLW, featuring a 4‑1 away win over Krylia Sovetov and a 2‑0 home win against Rodina Moskva. Those two victories show Dinamo can score, yet three defeats, including a 1‑3 loss to Dynamo (A), indicate defensive lapses that often lead to open games – a factor that supports an over‑2.5 goal outcome.
CSKA Moscow
CSKA's recent form of DWWDW includes a 3‑2 home win over Lokomotiv and a 2‑1 away win at Zenit, both games featuring three or more goals. Even their draws (0‑0 vs Rostov and 2‑2 at Akron) show they can concede, suggesting the match will not be tight and aligning with the over‑2.5 goal probability.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, CSKA has won three times, with scorelines like 3‑1 (2026) and 2‑1 (2025), while Dinamo's sole win was 1‑0. The recent 3‑2 victory for CSKA underscores a propensity for goals, supporting the over‑2.5 pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | CSKA Moscow 3-1 Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier League |
| 26 Nov 2025 | CSKA Moscow 2-1 Dinamo Makhachkala | Cup |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 CSKA Moscow | Premier League |
| 5 Nov 2025 | Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 CSKA Moscow | Cup |
| 29 Mar 2025 | CSKA Moscow 2-0 Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier League |
Team News
Dinamo Makhachkala: I. Shumakhov (Knee Injury), N. Voronin (Inactive), J. Dapo (Inactive)
CSKA Moscow: D. Barinov (Inactive), M. Gajic (Knee Injury), Moises (Inactive), I. Akinfeev (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Over 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 64% chance to more than two goals, underpinned by the teams' combined expected goals of 3.3 and recent high‑scoring performances.
What does the model give Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 24.7% chance, the draw 21.6%, and CSKA Moscow 53.6% to win.
When is Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala play CSKA Moscow on Thu 17 Sep · 18:45 BST in the Russian Premier League at Anzhi Arena.
Are there any injury concerns for Dinamo Makhachkala vs CSKA Moscow?
Dinamo Makhachkala: I. Shumakhov (Knee Injury), N. Voronin (Inactive), J. Dapo (Inactive). CSKA Moscow: D. Barinov (Inactive), M. Gajic (Knee Injury), Moises (Inactive), I. Akinfeev (Muscle Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Russian Premier League This Week
See all Russian Premier League fixtures →Given the goal averages and the recent high‑scoring outings, an open game with multiple goals is the most plausible outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
