Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town: Over 2.5 goals
Dorking Wanderers's 5.0 expected goals against Chatham Town's 2.5 set up a high‑scoring cup tie, with the model assigning a 91.1% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Both clubs arrive in the FA Cup fifth round riding recent league form – Dorking with a mixed draw‑win pattern and Chatham on a double‑win streak – and each has shown a willingness to both score and concede heavily in recent outings.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 91.1%, driven by Dorking's 5.0 xG and Chatham's 2.5 xG together with their recent propensity to find the net.
Show the maths
With Dorking Wanderers averaging 5.0 expected goals and Chatham Town averaging 2.5, the model gives a 84.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 15.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 7.5 (Dorking Wanderers 5.0 + Chatham Town 2.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 91.1% chance against 8.9% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dorking Wanderers at 70.1%, the draw at 10.0%, and Chatham Town at 13.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 4-2 at 4.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dorking Wanderers
Dorking’s recent league record includes a 2-2 draw away at Southall and a 5-4 home win over the same opponents, showing they can both create and concede heavily. Those two fixtures illustrate a goal‑laden style that directly underpins the model’s 91.1% over‑2.5 probability.
Chatham Town
Chatham Town have just recorded a 4-0 away win at Egham Town and a 1-0 away win at Slough Town, highlighting their ability to keep a clean sheet while still adding to the goal tally. The 4-0 result especially boosts the combined expected goals, supporting the over‑2.5 goals pick.
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
Over 2.5 goals. The model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 91.1%, driven by Dorking's 5.0 xG and Chatham's 2.5 xG together with their recent propensity to find the net.
What does the model give Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dorking Wanderers a 70.1% chance, the draw 10.0%, and Chatham Town 13.1% to win.
When is Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town?
Dorking Wanderers play Chatham Town on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With goal‑mouths open on both sides and the statistical outlook heavily favoring a goal‑rich game, the safest bet is to back the total goals to go over 2.5.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
