Drogheda United vs Dundalk: Dundalk to win
Drogheda United's 1.0 expected goals meet Dundalk's 1.4 at the same venue, but the model rates Dundalk's win chance at 46.1% versus just 27% for a draw.
Both sides come in on opposite trajectories – Drogheda have managed a win and three draws in their last five, while Dundalk have failed to secure a win in five, sitting on two draws and three losses.
Hamish's Verdict
The model gives Dundalk a 46.1% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes, indicating a clear edge despite recent form.
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With Drogheda United averaging 1.0 expected goals and Dundalk averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Drogheda United 1.0 + Dundalk 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Drogheda United at 26.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and Dundalk at 46.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Drogheda United
Drogheda’s last five league results read W‑D‑D‑D‑L, including a 2-1 away victory over Dundalk and a 0-2 home loss to St Patrick's Athl. The win demonstrates they can breach Dundalk’s defence, but the subsequent three draws and a heavy home defeat show an inability to sustain scoring pressure, underpinning a modest chance of outright victory.
Dundalk
Dundalk’s recent run of L‑D‑D‑L‑L features a 1-2 home loss to Galway United and a 2-3 away loss to Shamrock Rovers, indicating a struggle to convert their 1.4 away xG into points. The two draws (both 1-1) suggest defensive resilience but insufficient firepower, supporting a win probability that still edges the draw.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Drogheda have recorded one win (2-1) and three draws (1-1, 1-1, 0-0), with no losses, a pattern that favours close games but does not discount Dundalk’s higher xG for a win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 22 May 2026 | Drogheda United 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Dundalk 1-1 Drogheda United | Premier Division |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Drogheda United None-None Dundalk | Friendlies Clubs |
| 1 Nov 2024 | Drogheda United 0-0 Dundalk | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Dundalk won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Dundalk to win.
What was the final score of Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 2-3 Dundalk (full time).
When was Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United played Dundalk on Fri 28 Aug · 20:00 BST in the League of Ireland at Weavers Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →The contrast between Dundalk’s higher xG and their poor form, combined with Drogheda’s modest scoring record, points to a narrow advantage for the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
