Dundalk vs Bohemians: Over 2.5 goals
Dundalk average 1.6 xG at home while Bohemians sit at 1.9 xG away, signalling a match primed for goals. The model places a 67.9% chance on the game going over 2.5 goals.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs – Dundalk have struggled to find consistency, whereas Bohemians have hit a rich vein of form. The clash pits a modest home attack against an away side that concedes just 1.2 goals per game on the road.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns a 67.9% probability to more than 2.5 goals, driven by the combined xG of 3.5 and recent high‑scoring results.
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With Dundalk averaging 1.6 expected goals and Bohemians averaging 1.9, the model gives a 67.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Dundalk 1.6 + Bohemians 1.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dundalk at 32.8%, the draw at 22.0%, and Bohemians at 45.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dundalk
Dundalk’s last five league games read L‑W‑D‑L‑L, highlighted by a 3‑2 away win over Drogheda United and a 1‑1 draw at Waterford. The win shows they can score multiple goals, while the draw and two recent defeats suggest defensive frailties – a mix that encourages an open game with several goals.
Bohemians
Bohemians have posted L‑W‑W‑W‑W, including a 5‑3 home thrashing of Derry City and a 3‑0 home victory over Sligo Rovers. Those big wins demonstrate a potent attack that can easily breach a 2.5‑goal total, and the lone loss was a 1‑3 defeat away, indicating they still find the net even when off‑side.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, four have seen both sides score, such as the 2‑1 win for Dundalk in June 2026, showing a clear pattern of goal‑filled encounters that backs the over 2.5 pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2026 | Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 8 May 2026 | Dundalk 1-3 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Dundalk 0-2 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 26 Jul 2024 | Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Over 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 67.9% probability to more than 2.5 goals, driven by the combined xG of 3.5 and recent high‑scoring results.
What does the model give Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dundalk a 32.8% chance, the draw 22.0%, and Bohemians 45.1% to win.
When is Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk play Bohemians on Fri 2 Oct · 19:45 BST in the League of Ireland at Oriel Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →With both teams averaging well above the 2.5‑goal mark and recent fixtures confirming their goal‑mouths, the odds tilt strongly toward a goal‑rich encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
