Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.: Both teams to score - Yes
Dundalk’s 1.6 xG at home meets St Patrick’s 1.1 away xG, setting a modest goal‑rich clash. The model rates both sides to find the net at 53.2%, the clearest edge in the data.
Both clubs come into the encounter with contrasting recent runs – Dundalk have slipped to a single win in five, while St Patrick’s have collected two victories. Their head‑to‑head history is evenly split, making the tactical battle the key story.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns a 53.2% chance both sides will hit the net, outpacing any other market’s confidence.
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With Dundalk averaging 1.6 expected goals and St Patrick's Athl. averaging 1.1, the model gives a 53.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Dundalk 1.6 + St Patrick's Athl. 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dundalk at 49.0%, the draw at 24.9%, and St Patrick's Athl. at 26.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 11.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dundalk
Dundalk’s last five league results read DDLLW, highlighted by a 3‑2 away win over Drogheda United and a 2‑3 away loss to Shamrock Rovers. The win shows they can score three, while the narrow loss indicates they still find the net, supporting a BTTS outcome.
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick’s form of DDWWL includes a 2‑0 away win over Drogheda United and a 2‑1 away win at Shelbourne. Both matches featured them scoring twice, confirming their ability to find the net on the road and bolstering the BTTS case.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, the sides have split wins (two each) and produced a single 1‑1 draw, underscoring a balanced but scoring‑prone rivalry that aligns with the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 6 Apr 2026 | Dundalk 2-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 27 Feb 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Dundalk | Premier Division |
| 5 Sep 2024 | Dundalk 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 3 Jun 2024 | St Patrick's Athl. 2-3 Dundalk | Premier Division |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Both teams to score - Yes. The model assigns a 53.2% chance both sides will hit the net, outpacing any other market’s confidence.
What does the model give Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dundalk a 49.0% chance, the draw 24.9%, and St Patrick's Athl. 26.2% to win.
When is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl. on Mon 14 Sep · 19:45 BST in the League of Ireland at Oriel Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →Given the comparable xG figures and the recent form indicating both sides are capable of scoring, the most decisive signal is the BTTS probability.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
