Dunston UTS vs Scarborough Athletic: Draw
Dunston UTS host Scarborough Athletic in the FA Cup with both sides averaging 1.35 expected goals, making the fixture a tight statistical duel.
Both clubs arrive with identical expected‑goal figures (1.35 each), indicating a match where neither side has a clear scoring advantage and the result will likely hinge on fine margins.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s draw probability of 25.8% is the highest single‑outcome likelihood after accounting for equal win chances, making the stalemate the most credible result.
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With Dunston UTS averaging 1.35 expected goals and Scarborough Athletic averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Dunston UTS 1.35 + Scarborough Athletic 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Dunston UTS at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Scarborough Athletic at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Dunston UTS
Dunston UTS’s last five league games include a 2‑0 victory away at Vauxhall Motors, demonstrating defensive solidity and the ability to score twice. That win underlines their capacity to keep a clean sheet, which supports a low‑scoring draw scenario.
Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic’s recent form is not provided, so no concrete recent‑match evidence can be cited. The lack of data means we cannot infer any momentum shift either way, reinforcing reliance on the model’s balanced probabilities.
Head-to-Head
In the three most recent meetings, Scarborough won 5‑2 and 3‑2, and the sides drew 1‑1, indicating a slight historical edge for the away team but also a propensity for multiple goals, which aligns with the draw being a plausible outcome.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2024 | Scarborough Athletic 5-2 Dunston UTS | FA Cup |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Dunston UTS 1-1 Scarborough Athletic | FA Cup |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Scarborough Athletic 3-2 Dunston UTS | FA Cup |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Dunston UTS vs Scarborough Athletic?
Draw. The model’s draw probability of 25.8% is the highest single‑outcome likelihood after accounting for equal win chances, making the stalemate the most credible result.
What does the model give Dunston UTS vs Scarborough Athletic?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Dunston UTS a 37.1% chance, the draw 25.8%, and Scarborough Athletic 37.1% to win.
When is Dunston UTS vs Scarborough Athletic?
Dunston UTS play Scarborough Athletic on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With the model assigning equal win probabilities (37.1% each) and a modest 25.8% chance of a draw, the match is poised to be as evenly balanced as the numbers suggest.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
