Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing: Ebbsfleet United to win
Ebbsfleet United's 1.35 expected goals edges them over Sholing's 1.0, and the model assigns them a 44.8% chance of victory in this FA Cup tie.
Both sides arrive in the FA Cup with contrasting recent form – Ebbsfleet have just secured a 3-1 away win over Maidenhead, while Sholing sit on back‑to‑back 2-0 and 1-0 victories at home and away. The fixture pits a modest home‑goal record against a Sholing side that has kept clean sheets on the road.
Robbo's Verdict
The model's 44.8% win probability, combined with Ebbsfleet's superior expected goals and recent 3‑1 away win, makes a home victory the most likely outcome.
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With Ebbsfleet United averaging 1.35 expected goals and Sholing averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Ebbsfleet United 1.35 + Sholing 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ebbsfleet United at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Sholing at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet's last five league results include a 3‑1 away win over Maidenhead, showing they can score multiple goals against comparable opposition. Their most recent form entry is a win, indicating momentum heading into the cup tie, which bolsters confidence in their ability to convert the 1.35 xG into a goal and secure the win.
Sholing
Sholing have recorded consecutive wins – 2‑0 at home against Andover New Street and 1‑0 away at Tiverton Town – underscoring defensive resilience but limited scoring output. The lack of goals beyond a single tally per match suggests they may struggle to match Ebbsfleet's higher xG, supporting the home side's win odds.
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
Ebbsfleet United to win. The model's 44.8% win probability, combined with Ebbsfleet's superior expected goals and recent 3‑1 away win, makes a home victory the most likely outcome.
What does the model give Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Ebbsfleet United a 44.8% chance, the draw 27.5%, and Sholing 27.7% to win.
When is Ebbsfleet United vs Sholing?
Ebbsfleet United play Sholing on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With the model giving Ebbsfleet the highest win probability and their recent high‑scoring performance, the logical read is to back the home side to clinch the win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
