Egham Town vs Chatham Town preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Egham Town 0-4 Chatham Town TBC

Egham Town vs Chatham Town: No clear favorite

Egham Town host Chatham Town in the FA Cup first round, with both sides boasting identical expected‑goals of 1.35 and perfectly balanced win probabilities.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

No clear favorite Void

Lean · No edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

The tie pits two non‑league clubs against each other in a classic cup showdown, where neither side has a statistical edge in scoring or defending, making the encounter an even‑priced lottery.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

No clear favorite Void Lean · No edge

The model’s win probabilities are identical for both clubs, so neither side commands a decisive edge.

Show the maths

The model’s expected‑goals for both sides sit at 1.35, meaning each team is projected to score roughly one and a third goals. Translating that into win probabilities gives 37.1% for a home win and 37.1% for an away win, with a 25.8% chance of a draw. Because the win odds are exactly equal, the model cannot single out a stronger side, leading to the conclusion that there is no clear favorite.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Egham Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Chatham Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Egham Town 1.35, Chatham Town 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Egham Town 1.35 + Chatham Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Egham Town 1.35 + Chatham Town 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Egham Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Chatham Town at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Egham Town expected goals

1.35

Chatham Town expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Manager Hake warns of hard work ahead

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Egham Town vs Chatham Town?

Chatham Town won 4-0. Our pre-match pick was No clear favorite.

What was the final score of Egham Town vs Chatham Town?

Egham Town 0-4 Chatham Town (full time).

When was Egham Town vs Chatham Town?

Egham Town played Chatham Town on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

With the numbers mirroring each other, there is no clear statistical advantage to back either side or any specific goal market.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups