Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2 FT · Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg Deutsche Bank Park

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg: Draw

Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg in a Bundesliga clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, and the model assigns equal win chances to each club.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Draw Lost

Lean · Balanced odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Frankfurt return to the league after a 3‑3 draw away at Union Berlin, while Augsburg have bounced back from a 0‑4 loss with a 3‑0 home win over Schalke, setting up a tightly balanced encounter.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Draw Lost Slight lean Lean · Balanced odds

The model’s balanced win odds and the history of tight scorelines suggest a stalemate is a realistic result.

Show the maths

The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 37.1% chance to win and FC Augsburg the same 37.1% chance, leaving a 25.8% probability for a draw. Since the win probabilities are identical, the draw sits as the single non‑dominant outcome, and the 25.8% share reflects the likelihood that neither side will break the deadlock. This probability, while lower than each win chance, is still significant given the identical expected‑goals of 1.35 for both clubs.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Eintracht Frankfurt averaging 1.35 expected goals and FC Augsburg averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35, FC Augsburg 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35 + FC Augsburg 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35 + FC Augsburg 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Eintracht Frankfurt at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and FC Augsburg at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals

1.35

FC Augsburg expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt’s recent league record shows a 3‑3 draw away at Union Berlin, indicating they can both score and concede freely. With no wins in the data set, this lack of positive results points to a cautious approach, supporting the possibility of another stalemate.

FC Augsburg

WWLW

FC Augsburg have secured a 3‑1 victory away at Werder Bremen and a 3‑1 win at home against Borussia Mönchengladbach, but suffered a 0‑4 defeat at Union Berlin before bouncing back with a 3‑0 home win over Schalke. The three wins and one loss illustrate strong attacking form but also defensive vulnerability, which can temper expectations for a decisive result.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, the sides have produced a 1‑1 draw (2026), a 1‑0 win for Frankfurt (2025‑12), a 0‑0 stalemate (2025‑04), a 2‑2 draw (2024‑12), and a 3‑1 win for Frankfurt (2024‑04), showing a mix of draws and narrow victories that backs a potential draw today.

Date	Result	Competition
25 Apr 2026	FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt	Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025	Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FC Augsburg	Bundesliga
20 Apr 2025	FC Augsburg 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt	Bundesliga
7 Dec 2024	Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 FC Augsburg	Bundesliga
19 Apr 2024	Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 FC Augsburg	Bundesliga

Team News (Pregame)

Eintracht Frankfurt: N. Collins (Back Injury), R. Doan (Muscle Injury), A. Knauff (Muscle Injury), H. Larsson (Muscle Injury)

FC Augsburg: T. Breithaupt (Injury), S. Mounie (Injury)

Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Last‑time Frankfurt edged Augsburg 1‑0

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?

FC Augsburg won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Draw.

What was the final score of Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg (full time).

When was Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?

Eintracht Frankfurt played FC Augsburg on Sun 6 Sep · 16:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Deutsche Bank Park.

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With win probabilities split 37.1% each and a draw sitting at 25.8%, the match is poised to be decided by fine margins, making the draw a credible outcome.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups