Estoril vs Rio Ave: Rio Ave to win
Estoril's expected 1.0 goal is outpaced by Rio Ave's 1.35, and the model rates Rio Ave's win probability at 44.8% versus Estoril's 27.7%. The numbers point to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Both sides have struggled to find points in their last five league outings – Estoril with two draws and three defeats, Rio Ave with two draws and three defeats – so the match is essentially a test of who can convert the limited chances they generate.
Lars's Verdict
Rio Ave’s superior expected goals (1.35 vs 1.0) and a 44.8% win probability make them the clear favorite to take the three points.
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With Estoril averaging 1.0 expected goals and Rio Ave averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Estoril 1.0 + Rio Ave 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Estoril at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Rio Ave at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Estoril
Estoril's last five league games read DDLDL, with a 1‑1 draw at SC Braga and a 1‑1 draw at Alverca showing they can hold opponents but fail to score more than one. The 1‑3 loss to Benfica and 0‑2 defeat at Nacional underline defensive frailties, suggesting they are unlikely to outscore Rio Ave this weekend.
Rio Ave
Rio Ave's recent form DLDLL includes a 0‑0 home draw with GIL Vicente and a 1‑1 away draw at Casa Pia, proving they can keep games tight. However, the 1‑4 loss to Sporting CP and 0‑2 defeat to FC Porto highlight a lack of firepower, meaning they are more likely to rely on defensive solidity than prolific scoring.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Rio Ave won 1‑2 in March 2026, Estoril thrashed Rio Ave 0‑4 in November 2025, and Estoril also won 2‑1 in February 2025, while the two most recent encounters ended in 2‑2 and 1‑1 draws, indicating a slight recent edge for Rio Ave.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Estoril 1-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Rio Ave 0-4 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Estoril 2-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Rio Ave 2-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Rio Ave 1-1 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Rio Ave won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Rio Ave to win.
What was the final score of Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Estoril 0-2 Rio Ave (full time).
When was Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Estoril played Rio Ave on Sat 22 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Primeira Liga at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
More Primeira Liga This Week
See all Primeira Liga fixtures →Given the higher expected goals for Rio Ave and the model's 44.8% win probability, the visitors have the statistical edge to secure all three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
