Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys: Estudiantes L.P. to win
Estudiantes L.P. hold a 48.8% win probability at home against Newells Old Boys, who sit at just 25.2% away. The hosts' 1.5 expected goals versus the visitors' 1.0 frames a clear edge.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent runs – Estudiantes have been erratic, while Newells have turned their form around in the last two games. The clash pits Estudiantes' solid home defence against Newells' improved attacking output.
Bez's Verdict
The model assigns Estudiantes a 48.8% chance of victory, nearly double Newells' 25.2% away win probability, reflecting their stronger home form and xG advantage.
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With Estudiantes L.P. averaging 1.5 expected goals and Newells Old Boys averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Estudiantes L.P. 1.5 + Newells Old Boys 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Estudiantes L.P. at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Newells Old Boys at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes’ last five league results are W‑L‑L‑W‑L, highlighted by a 3‑0 home win over Defensa Y Justicia and a 4‑0 home thrashing of Gimnasia L.P. Both dominant victories show the team can score freely at home, supporting a win pick here despite recent away defeats.
Newells Old Boys
Newells’ recent form reads L‑D‑L‑W‑W, with a 2‑0 home win over Deportivo Riestra and a 2‑1 home victory against Banfield. While they have two wins, both came at home, indicating they struggle to replicate that threat away, which weakens their chance of an away win in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Estudiantes have won three times and drawn twice, including a 2‑0 win on 2024‑02‑19 and a 2‑0 win on 2026‑02‑25, underscoring a clear historical edge for the hosts.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | Newells Old Boys 0-2 Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Newells Old Boys 1-1 Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2 Aug 2024 | Newells Old Boys 1-4 Estudiantes L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 19 Feb 2024 | Estudiantes L.P. 2-0 Newells Old Boys | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys?
Estudiantes L.P. and Newells Old Boys drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Estudiantes L.P. to win.
What was the final score of Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys?
Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 Newells Old Boys (full time).
When was Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys?
Estudiantes L.P. played Newells Old Boys on Mon 31 Aug · 23:00 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →All indicators point to the hosts capitalising on their defensive stability and superior xG, making a home win the most likely outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
