Everton vs Crystal Palace: No clear one‑sided market
Everton host Crystal Palace in a Premier League clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35. The model sees a perfectly balanced win probability, but a slight tilt toward both sides finding the net.
Everton have struggled to convert chances at Goodison, while Palace have been equally blunt on the road. With both teams averaging zero goals for and against at home and away respectively, the fixture promises a tight tactical battle.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s win probabilities are identical for both teams and the draw sits well below 30%, leaving no market with a decisive edge.
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With Everton averaging 1.35 expected goals and Crystal Palace averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Everton 1.35 + Crystal Palace 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Everton at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Crystal Palace at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Everton
Everton's recent league form reads D‑L‑L, with a 2-2 draw away at Crystal Palace, a 1-3 home loss to Sunderland and a 0-1 away defeat to Tottenham. The three consecutive defeats after the draw underline a faltering attack, which supports the low expected‑goals figure and dampens confidence in a clean sheet for them.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace's form is D‑L, comprising a 2-2 draw away at Brentford and a 1-2 home loss to Arsenal. The inability to secure a win in either match highlights their limited goal output, reinforcing the model’s modest expected‑goals and the likelihood of a low‑scoring game.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the results have been tight: a 2-2 draw in May 2026 and a 1-1 draw in February 2024, with Everton edging the other three encounters. The prevalence of draws and close scorelines aligns with the model’s expectation of a balanced result.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton | Premier League |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton | Premier League |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 19 Feb 2024 | Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was No clear one‑sided market.
What was the final score of Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace (full time).
When was Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton played Crystal Palace on Sat 22 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Premier League at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →Given the parity in win probabilities and the modest goal expectations, there is no single market that stands out as a clear‑cut opportunity.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
