Fakel vs Baltika: Baltika to win
Baltika arrive with a 2.0 xG away average and a 78.4% win probability, while Fakel’s 0.3 xG at home leaves them vulnerable. The numbers point decisively toward a Baltika victory.
Fakel have managed only two points from their last five league outings (two draws, three defeats), indicating a struggle to convert chances. Baltika sit on seven points from the same span (two wins, one draw, two defeats), showing they can still pick up results despite a mixed run.
Lars's Verdict
Baltika’s 2.0 expected goals versus Fakel’s 0.3, combined with a 78.4% win probability, give them a decisive edge.
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With Fakel averaging 0.3 expected goals and Baltika averaging 2.0, the model gives a 77.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 22.4% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Fakel 0.3 + Baltika 2.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Fakel at 4.6%, the draw at 17.0%, and Baltika at 78.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 20.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Fakel
Fakel’s recent five-game run reads D‑L‑D‑L‑L, with two draws against Akhmat (0‑0) and Orenburg (0‑0) and three defeats, including a 1‑3 loss to Rostov. The inability to score in four of those matches illustrates a thin attacking threat, reinforcing the low expected‑goals figure and supporting a Baltika win.
Baltika
Baltika’s last five fixtures show W‑L‑D‑W‑L, highlighted by a 2‑0 win at Krylia Sovetov and a 3‑0 victory away at Rodina Moskva, both clean‑sheet wins. Their ability to score multiple goals on the road confirms the 2.0 away xG and backs the pick for a Baltika win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Baltika have two wins (1‑0 in 2026, 2‑1 in 2023), two losses (1‑2 in 2024, 0‑1 in 2022) and one draw (0‑0 in 2023), indicating no clear dominance but a slight edge that aligns with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | Baltika 1-0 Fakel | Friendlies Clubs |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Baltika 1-2 Fakel | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2 Dec 2023 | Fakel Voronezh 0-0 Baltika | Premier League |
| 6 Aug 2023 | Baltika 2-1 Fakel Voronezh | Premier League |
| 21 May 2022 | Baltika 0-1 Fakel Voronezh | First League |
Team News (Pregame)
Fakel: S. Magkeev (Muscle Injury), M. Turishchev (Injury)
Baltika: A. Filin (Knee Injury), E. Civic (Inactive), M. Shnaptsev (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel and Baltika drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Baltika to win.
What was the final score of Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel 2-2 Baltika (full time).
When was Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel played Baltika on Sat 12 Sep · 12:00 BST in the Russian Premier League at Fakel Stadium.
More Russian Premier League This Week
See all Russian Premier League fixtures →The disparity in scoring potential and the model’s 78.4% probability for a Baltika win make the result the most logical outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
