Farnham Town vs Cirencester Town: Both teams to score - Yes
Cirencester Town’s 3.0 expected goals dwarf Farnham Town’s 1.35, and the model backs a 70.4% win chance for the visitors.
Both clubs enter the FA Cup tie with contrasting recent form – Farnham have only managed a 2‑2 draw in their last five league outings, while Cirencester have mixed results but a recent 3‑0 away win.
Robbo's Verdict
The 70.1% BTTS probability, driven by Cirencester’s 3.0 xG and Farnham’s recent 2‑2 draw, makes scoring from both sides the most likely outcome.
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With Farnham Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Cirencester Town averaging 3.0, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (Farnham Town 1.35 + Cirencester Town 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Farnham Town at 14.3%, the draw at 14.9%, and Cirencester Town at 70.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Farnham Town
Farnham’s last five league games have produced only a single draw – a 2‑2 stalemate away at Cirencester Town – and that same scoreline was mirrored in their recent head‑to‑head on 19 Sep 2026. The inability to secure a win in these outings suggests limited offensive threat, which supports the view that Farnham are unlikely to keep the match clean.
Cirencester Town
Cirencester’s recent run includes a 3‑0 away victory over Fleetlands and a 2‑2 home draw with Farnham Town, flanked by heavy defeats (0‑7 at Fairford Town, 0‑2 at Reading City). The big win and the ability to score in the draw highlight a potent attack that can breach Farnham’s defence, underpinning the BTTS pick.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head on 19 Sep 2026 ended 2‑2, showing that both sides have already scored, which aligns with the model’s high BTTS probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Cirencester Town 2-2 Farnham Town | FA Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Farnham Town vs Cirencester Town?
Cirencester Town won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Farnham Town vs Cirencester Town?
Farnham Town 1-2 Cirencester Town (full time).
When was Farnham Town vs Cirencester Town?
Farnham Town played Cirencester Town on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With the model assigning a 70.1% chance that both sides will score, the BTTS market is the strongest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
