FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: FC Augsburg to win
FC Augsburg's 3.0 xG at home clashes with Bayer Leverkusen's 2.0 away xG, yet the model rates Augsburg at 58.1% to win. The numbers point to a high‑scoring home victory.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form: Augsburg have been prolific, scoring three goals in each of their last three wins, while Leverkusen have shown defensive frailty on the road, conceding three in their most recent defeat.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Augsburg a 58.1% chance of victory, driven by superior home xG and Leverkusen's porous defense.
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With FC Augsburg averaging 3.0 expected goals and Bayer Leverkusen averaging 2.0, the model gives a 81.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (FC Augsburg 3.0 + Bayer Leverkusen 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.1% chance against 12.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Augsburg at 58.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Bayer Leverkusen at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 6.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Augsburg
Augsburg's recent run of WWLW includes a 3‑1 away win over Werder Bremen and a 3‑1 home win against Borussia Mönchengladbach, showing they can find the net regardless of venue. Their lone loss was a 0‑4 defeat at Union Berlin, but the three-goal wins illustrate a potent attack that underpins the pick for a home victory.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen's last five include a 2‑3 away loss to SV Elversberg and a 4‑0 home win over Union Berlin, indicating inconsistency. The heavy defeat on the road highlights defensive lapses that support the expectation of conceding multiple goals to Augsburg.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Augsburg have won twice (2‑1 on 2026‑04‑18 and 2‑0 on 2025‑12‑06) while Leverkusen have won three times, suggesting the head‑to‑head record slightly favors Leverkusen but does not negate Augsburg's current statistical edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 6 Dec 2025 | FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 14 Dec 2024 | FC Augsburg 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 18 May 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
FC Augsburg: T. Breithaupt (Injury), K. Jakic (Injury), S. Mounie (Injury), A. Kade (Injury)
Bayer Leverkusen: E. Ben Seghir (Thigh Injury), M. Culbreath (Injury), G. Doue (Injury), K. Eichhorn (Illness)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was FC Augsburg to win.
What was the final score of FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen (full time).
When was FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg played Bayer Leverkusen on Sat 12 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at WWK Arena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →All metrics converge on Augsburg's offensive edge and Leverkusen's defensive vulnerability, making a home win the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
