FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Swiss Super League · Regular Season - 3 FT · FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun St. Jakob-Park

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun: Over 2.5 goals

Basel's meagre 0.0 home goals average meets Thun's 3.0 away scoring rate, making goals the only certainty. The model rates an 80.5% chance of more than 2.5 goals in this clash.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Over 2.5 goals Won

Strong · High scoring

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

70.1% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

80.5% model probability

Both clubs have struggled to keep clean sheets, but the contrast in firepower is stark. Basel have failed to find the net at home all season, while Thun have been prolific on the road, averaging three goals per match.

Lars's Verdict

Strong

Over 2.5 goals Won Strong lean Strong · High scoring

The model assigns an 80.5% probability to the over‑2.5 goal market, driven by Thun’s 3.0 expected goals and Basel’s defensive frailties.

Show the maths

Basel’s xG of 1.35 combined with Thun’s xG of 3.0 yields a total expected goal count of 4.35. Translating that to a Poisson‑like distribution places the probability of two or fewer goals well below 20%, while the chance of three or more exceeds 80%. The model therefore reflects an 80.5% over‑2.5 probability, confirming the pick.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 70.1% model probability

With FC Basel 1893 averaging 1.35 expected goals and FC Thun averaging 3.0, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (FC Basel 1893 1.35, FC Thun 3.0) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 70.1% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 29.9% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 80.5% model probability

Combined expected goals of 4.3 (FC Basel 1893 1.35 + FC Thun 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (FC Basel 1893 1.35 + FC Thun 3.0 = 4.3 combined): 80.5% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 19.5% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Basel 1893 at 14.3%, the draw at 14.9%, and FC Thun at 70.4% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

FC Basel 1893 expected goals

1.35

FC Thun expected goals

3.0

Model BTTS probability

70.1%

Most likely scorelines

11-2

7.8%

21-3

7.8%

31-4

5.9%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

FC Basel 1893

LLLWL

Basel’s last five league results read LLLWL, highlighted by a 1‑0 away win at Servette followed by a 0‑1 home loss to Lausanne. The 0‑3 defeat at Young Boys and 0‑4 drubbing by Lugano demonstrate a pattern of conceding heavily, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal‑rich encounter.

FC Thun

LLDWL

Thun’s form LLDWL includes a 3‑8 home loss to Young Boys but also a 3‑1 away victory over Luzern and a 1‑1 draw at St. Gallen. The three‑goal haul at Luzern shows their capacity to score in bulk, supporting an over‑2.5 outcome.

Head-to-Head

Recent head‑to‑head meetings have produced three‑goal games or more, notably a 1‑2 win for Thun in February and a 3‑1 Thun victory in April, underscoring the high‑scoring trend.

Date	Result	Competition
2 May 2026	FC Basel 1893 3-1 FC Thun	Super League
18 Apr 2026	FC Thun 3-1 FC Basel 1893	Super League
1 Feb 2026	FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Thun	Super League
13 Sep 2025	FC Thun 1-3 FC Basel 1893	Super League
11 Jan 2025	FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC Thun	Friendlies Clubs

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Match set for early August

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?

FC Basel 1893 won 4-2. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.

What was the final score of FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?

FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun (full time).

When was FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun?

FC Basel 1893 played FC Thun on Sun 9 Aug · 15:30 BST in the Swiss Super League at St. Jakob-Park.

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With both sides prone to conceding and Thun’s attack firing at a rate double Basel’s, the match is set to produce plenty of goals.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga