FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca: CF Pachuca to win
Juarez have scored less than a goal per game at home while Pachuca average 1.3 away, and the model rates Pachuca's win probability at 51 % versus Juarez’s 20 %. The numbers point to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Both sides arrive on a slump – Juarez have lost five straight overall, and Pachuca have failed to win in five, recording three losses and two draws. The match offers Juarez a chance to snap a run of defeats, but the recent form suggests they lack the firepower to overturn the odds.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 51 % win probability for Pachuca, backed by superior away expected goals and a tighter defence, makes a Juarez win unlikely.
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With FC Juarez averaging 0.7 expected goals and CF Pachuca averaging 1.3, the model gives a 63.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 36.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (FC Juarez 0.7 + CF Pachuca 1.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Juarez at 20.1%, the draw at 29.0%, and CF Pachuca at 51.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 17.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Juarez
Juarez’s five‑game slump includes a 0‑1 loss to Puebla at home and a 1‑5 defeat to Pumas, both highlighting a thin attack that rarely breaches opposition lines. The recent 1‑2 loss to Club America at home underscores their inability to score more than one goal, reinforcing the low expected‑goals figure and supporting a Pachuca win.
CF Pachuca
Pachuca’s last five feature a 1‑2 loss to Queretaro at home, a 0‑1 defeat at Leon, and a 2‑3 loss to Puebla, but they have steadied with two 1‑1 draws against Atletico San Luis (away) and Chivas (home). The draws show they can hold opponents while still finding the net, matching their 1.3 away xG and bolstering the case for a win.
Head-to-Head
In the latest head‑to‑head, Pachuca beat Juarez 2‑0 in February 2026, while the most recent encounter in November 2025 saw Juarez win 2‑1, giving a mixed recent record but a slight edge to Pachuca overall.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | CF Pachuca 2-0 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 24 Nov 2025 | FC Juarez 2-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 18 Oct 2025 | FC Juarez 2-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 1 Mar 2025 | FC Juarez 2-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 10 Nov 2024 | CF Pachuca 0-1 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
CF Pachuca won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was CF Pachuca to win.
What was the final score of FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
FC Juarez 0-2 CF Pachuca (full time).
When was FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
FC Juarez played CF Pachuca on Sat 5 Sep · 04:00 BST in the Liga MX at TBC.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →Given the disparity in expected goals and the statistical edge in away form, the most logical read is a Pachuca victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
