FC Nordsjaelland vs Randers FC: No viable edge identified
Both sides sit on a zero‑expected‑goals baseline, and the model assigns a 100% probability to a scoreless draw. The market only offers odds on a Randers win, implying a 21.7% chance that the model completely discounts.
| Bookmaker | FC Nordsjaelland | Draw | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.88 | 4.41 |
| Bet Victor | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.62 | 3.63 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betway | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Casumo | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.71 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Coral | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Everygame | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| GTbets | 1.76 | 3.85 | 4.31 |
| Grosvenor | 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.63 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.70 | 3.88 | 4.45 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.56 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.96 | 4.60 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.69 | 3.95 | 4.60 |
| Suprabets | 1.68 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.59 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.35 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.66 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.62 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
FC Nordsjælland host Randers FC in a clash where neither team has generated any measurable threat in the current season, making the fixture a statistical dead‑heat.
Lars's Verdict
The model predicts a 0% chance of a Randers win versus the market’s 21.7% implied probability, so there is no value in taking that price.
Show the maths
With FC Nordsjaelland averaging 0.0 expected goals and Randers FC averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 0.0 (FC Nordsjaelland 0.0 + Randers FC 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has FC Nordsjaelland at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and Randers FC at 0.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
FC Nordsjaelland
Nordsjælland’s last two league outings include a 4‑1 home win over SønderjyskE and a 1‑1 draw at AC Horsens. Despite the big win, the model still rates their scoring potential at 0.0 xG, indicating that the recent goal flood is not sustainable and does not improve the odds of a Randers win.
Randers FC
Randers have struggled to find the net, with a 0‑2 loss at Silkeborg, a 1‑0 win over Vejle, a 2‑2 draw with Odense, a 0‑5 defeat at Copenhagen and a 1‑1 draw with Silkeborg. Their expected‑goals tally remains at 0.0, underscoring a lack of real scoring threat that would justify backing a victory.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meetings have swung wildly – a 1‑0 Nordsjælland win in October 2025 followed by a 3‑0 Randers triumph a month later – but the model’s zero xG for both sides suggests those past goals are outliers and do not affect the draw certainty.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2025 | FC Nordsjaelland 1-0 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Randers FC 3-0 FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga |
| 2 May 2025 | Randers FC 3-2 FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga |
| 13 Apr 2025 | FC Nordsjaelland 5-2 Randers FC | Superliga |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Randers FC 4-0 FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | FC Nordsjaelland | Draw | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.76 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 (Betsson) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 (Grosvenor) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
FC Nordsjaelland: S. Alio (Knee Injury), A. Lind (Injury), A. Mohammed (Knee Injury)
Randers FC: W. Caddy (Injury), P. Izzo (Transfer negotiations)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
With the market only pricing a Randers victory at 4.6 (21.7% implied), there is no statistical edge to back that outcome – the model simply sees a draw as inevitable.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org