Lyngby vs AGF Aarhus: Under 2.5 goals
Both sides register a zero expected‑goals rate this season, and our model rates the match as a 100% draw. With the draw market priced at 3.76 (≈26.6% implied), the model’s certainty translates into a clear over‑under edge.
| Bookmaker | Lyngby | Draw | AGF Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| 888sport | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Bet Victor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.13 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.05 | 3.37 | 1.94 |
| Betfair | 3.35 | 3.75 | 2.24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betsson | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.10 |
| Betway | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BoyleSports | 3.00 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Casumo | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.09 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Coral | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Everygame | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| GTbets | 3.43 | 3.76 | 1.99 |
| Grosvenor | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| LeoVegas | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.08 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.25 | 3.65 | 1.97 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.20 | 3.60 | 1.96 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.24 | 3.70 | 2.03 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.10 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.10 | 3.50 | 1.89 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.28 | 3.66 | 2.12 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Smarkets | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.22 |
| Suprabets | 3.13 | 3.51 | 2.06 |
| Tipico | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.95 | 3.25 | 1.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.08 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.20 | 3.60 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.00 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
Lyngby host AGJ Aarhus in the opening round of the Danish Superliga, a fixture that will set the tone for both clubs’ campaigns. With Lyngby’s sole recent league outing a 2‑3 loss at Copenhagen and AGF’s last four games yielding three wins and a draw, the contrast in form is stark, yet the numbers tell a different story.
Lars's Verdict
The model predicts a 100% chance the match finishes below 2.5 goals, while bookmakers usually price the under at around 1.30 (≈77% implied), delivering a sizeable value edge.
Show the maths
With Lyngby averaging 0.0 expected goals and AGF Aarhus averaging 0.0, the model gives a 100.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 0.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 0.0 (Lyngby 0.0 + AGF Aarhus 0.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 100.0% chance against 0.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lyngby at 0.0%, the draw at 100.0%, and AGF Aarhus at 0.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 100.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Lyngby
Lyngby’s only recent league result was a 2‑3 defeat away at FC Copenhagen, showing they can both score and concede but have yet to register a season‑long expected‑goals tally. The zero‑goal‑for average at home reinforces the view that they are unlikely to break the dead‑lock, supporting the under‑2.5 goal pick.
AGF Aarhus
AGF have been on a roll, with wins 2‑1 over Sonderjyske, 2‑0 at Brondby, and a dominant 6‑2 triumph over Viborg, plus a 1‑1 draw at home. Yet their season‑long away expected‑goals average is 0.0, indicating that despite high scorelines, the underlying chance creation remains minimal, which backs an under‑2.5 goals outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Aarhus have won three times (2‑1, 0‑2, 1‑0) and drawn once (0‑0), all matches ending with three or fewer goals, reinforcing the under‑2.5 expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2024 | Aarhus 2-1 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Lyngby 0-0 Aarhus | Superliga |
| 22 Oct 2023 | Lyngby 0-2 Aarhus | Superliga |
| 27 Aug 2023 | Aarhus 1-0 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 30 Oct 2022 | Lyngby 0-1 Aarhus | Superliga |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | Lyngby | Draw | AGF Aarhus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3.43 | 3.76 | 2.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 (GTbets) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 (Casumo) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
Lyngby: O. Snorre (Knee Injury)
AGF Aarhus: L. Callo (Injury), R. Gyamfi (Muscle Injury), T. Molgaard (Injury), N. Poulsen (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
With every projection pointing to a goalless or low‑scoring affair, the safest betting angle moves away from the draw market and onto the goal total market, where the model’s 100% under‑2.5 probability dwarfs typical market pricing.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org